Национальная Студенческая Лига Киберспорта Dota 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
УрФУloss 1:2series probability
79%21%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Derzhawinwin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
УрФУ
No games played over 6 months.
Derzhawin
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tusk
507 picks · 687 bans
Clockwerk
430 picks · 488 bans
Pangolier
372 picks · 533 bans
Luna
356 picks · 457 bans
Dark Willow
350 picks · 180 bans
Dragon Knight
329 picks · 476 bans
Enchantress
326 picks · 633 bans
Batrider
319 picks · 328 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 43%
Hero pool strength50% УрФУ
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total79% УрФУ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed35:30
УрФУ 79%Derzhawin 21%
The model gave 79% on УрФУ — the game was taken by Derzhawin in 37:04.
Game 2prediction correct24:40
УрФУ 79%Derzhawin 21%
The model gave 79% on УрФУ — the game was taken by УрФУ in 39:24.
Game 3prediction missed44:18
УрФУ 79%Derzhawin 21%
The model gave 79% on УрФУ — the game was taken by Derzhawin in 28:14.
Model check result
Model favoriteУрФУ · 79%
Series resultDerzhawin 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3