Студенческая лига 2022 Dota 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
УрФУwin 2:1series probability
60%40%
probability at match start · final 2:1
ТГУloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
УрФУ
No games played over 6 months.
ТГУ
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
479 picks · 662 bans
Tiny
473 picks · 448 bans
Bane
454 picks · 277 bans
Dragon Knight
415 picks · 495 bans
Sand King
414 picks · 566 bans
Storm Spirit
401 picks · 653 bans
Pangolier
368 picks · 574 bans
Grimstroke
349 picks · 298 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 63%
Hero pool strength50% УрФУ
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total60% УрФУ
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
УрФУ 60%ТГУ 40%
The model gave 60% on УрФУ — the game was taken by ТГУ.
Game 2prediction correct
УрФУ 60%ТГУ 40%
The model gave 60% on УрФУ — the game was taken by УрФУ.
Game 3prediction correct
УрФУ 60%ТГУ 40%
The model gave 60% on УрФУ — the game was taken by УрФУ.
Model check result
Model favoriteУрФУ · 60%
Series resultУрФУ 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3