IESF World Championship 2021. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Узбекистанwin 2:1series probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Россияloss 1:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Узбекистан
No games played over 6 months.
Россия
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
366 picks · 176 bans
Hoodwink
331 picks · 121 bans
Lina
271 picks · 498 bans
Mars
258 picks · 430 bans
Luna
254 picks · 340 bans
Pangolier
252 picks · 336 bans
Nyx Assassin
242 picks · 512 bans
Terrorblade
233 picks · 480 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 71%
Hero pool strength50% Узбекистан
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total76% Россия
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:32
Узбекистан 24%Россия 76%
The model gave 76% on Россия — the game was taken by Россия in 45:50.
Game 2prediction missed50:27
Узбекистан 24%Россия 76%
The model gave 76% on Россия — the game was taken by Узбекистан in 39:17.
Game 3prediction missed37:55
Узбекистан 24%Россия 76%
The model gave 76% on Россия — the game was taken by Узбекистан in 48:11.
Model check result
Model favoriteРоссия · 76%
Series resultУзбекистан 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3