Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
V-Gaming
Linasignature
hAze · 38 games
Lionsignature
ArrOw · 31 game
Treant Protectorsignature
Malady · 28 games
Shadow Demonsignature
ArrOw · 26 games
Weaversignature
ArrOw · 25 games
Invokeroften banned
hAze · 24 games
Disruptorsignature
Malady · 23 games
Night Stalkersignature
laise · 22 games
B8 Esports
Void Spirit
Dendi · 26 games
Shadow Demonsignature
[T]SA · 25 games
Linasignature
[T]SA · 23 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Watson · 22 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Dendi · 17 games
Lunaoften banned
Watson · 16 games
Bane
Sammyboy · 14 games
Snapfire
Alexxo · 13 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Bane
414 picks · 299 bans
Mars
389 picks · 564 bans
Snapfire
316 picks · 176 bans
Queen of Pain
308 picks · 368 bans
Weaver
308 picks · 738 bans
Kunkka
247 picks · 420 bans
Ember Spirit
236 picks · 324 bans
Spirit Breaker
234 picks · 325 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 11%
Hero pool strength58% V-Gaming
Head-to-head4 – 1
Model total83% V-Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed15:18
V-Gaming 72%B8 Esports 28%
The model gave 72% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by B8 Esports in 38:34.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar AssassinTA2000
Medusav1olent-
Queen of PainhAze
KunkkapJonn
Night Stalkerlaise
PuckDendi
RubickArrOw
WeaverLagoona
Silencerantoha
Game 2prediction correct28:21
V-Gaming 70%B8 Esports 30%
The model gave 70% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by V-Gaming in 41:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeTA2000
Lunav1olent-
InvokerhAze
PuckDendi
Centaur Warrunnerlaise
GrimstrokeLagoona
LionArrOw
MarspJonn
Weaverantoha
Game 3prediction correct30:7
V-Gaming 70%B8 Esports 30%
The model gave 70% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by V-Gaming in 35:03.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless VoidTA2000
Terrorbladev1olent-
Queen of PainhAze
InvokerDendi
Outworld Destroyerlaise
VenomancerpJonn
Nyx AssassinArrOw
WeaverLagoona
Silencerantoha
Model check result
Model favoriteV-Gaming · 83%
Series resultV-Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3