?
arrow_backBack to match
Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
V-Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
31%69%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Creepwaveloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

V-Gaming

Lion
Lionsignature
ArrOw · 31 game
68%
Lina
Linasignature
hAze · 28 games
61%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
ArrOw · 24 games
71%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Malady · 24 games
79%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Malady · 19 games
63%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Malady · 16 games
56%
Batrider
Batridersignature
hAze · 16 games
69%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
hAze · 16 games
56%

Creepwave

Razor
Razoroften banned
ATF · 14 games
57%
Sven
Svenoften banned
Crystallis · 14 games
43%
Mars
Marssignature
ATF · 13 games
77%
Snapfire
Snapfiresignature
Fishman · 13 games
77%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
ATF · 11 games
55%
Bane
Bane
Fishman · 10 games
30%
Io
Iosignature
Chuvash · 10 games
60%
Slardar
Slardarsignature
ATF · 10 games
70%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
260 picks · 372 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
258 picks · 319 bans
48%
Monkey King
Monkey King
243 picks · 547 bans
61%
Lion
Lion
226 picks · 109 bans
53%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
226 picks · 243 bans
50%
Lina
Lina
221 picks · 458 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
214 picks · 280 bans
49%
Tiny
Tiny
208 picks · 277 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 65%
Hero pool strength53% V-Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total69% Creepwave
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:28
V-Gaming 41%Creepwave 59%
The model gave 59% on Creepwave — the game was taken by Creepwave in 22:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Phantom Assassin
Phantom AssassinTA2000
38% · 50 games46% · 41 game
Queen of PainStormstormer
Queen of Pain
Puck
PuckArrOw
58% · 109 games45% · 64 games
LifestealerCrystallis
Lifestealer
Legion Commander
Legion Commanderlaise
47% · 46 games48% · 119 games
BloodseekerTobi
Bloodseeker
Dark Willow
Dark Willowb1kA
50% · 54 games45% · 10 games
Spirit BreakerKataomi
Spirit Breaker
Weaver
Weaverantoha
59% · 76 games53% · 101 game
DisruptorFishman
Disruptor
Game 2prediction missed42:14
V-Gaming 40%Creepwave 60%
The model gave 60% on Creepwave — the game was taken by V-Gaming in 26:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidTA2000
45% · 60 games52% · 129 games
MedusaCrystallis
Medusa
Razor
Razorlaise
54% · 60 games60% · 6 games
NecrophosTobi
Necrophos
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritArrOw
49% · 90 games48% · 66 games
WindrangerStormstormer
Windranger
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinb1kA
57% · 99 games45% · 121 game
SnapfireKataomi
Snapfire
Enigma
Enigmaantoha
48% · 30 games54% · 17 games
SilencerFishman
Silencer
Game 3prediction missed50:28
V-Gaming 41%Creepwave 59%
The model gave 59% on Creepwave — the game was taken by V-Gaming in 41:36.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith KingTA2000
49% · 101 game51% · 94 games
Faceless VoidCrystallis
Faceless Void
Mars
Marslaise
51% · 174 games49% · 165 games
LinaStormstormer
Lina
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld DestroyerArrOw
55% · 15 games50% · 34 games
VenomancerTobi
Venomancer
Dark Willow
Dark Willowb1kA
53% · 64 games34% · 21 game
Spirit BreakerKataomi
Spirit Breaker
Weaver
Weaverantoha
50% · 63 games52% · 103 games
DisruptorFishman
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteCreepwave · 69%
Series resultV-Gaming 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3