?
Positive Fire Games · BO3
result vs prediction
V-Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 2:1
HFloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

V-Gaming

Mars
Marsoften banned
laise · 7 games
57%
Lion
Lionsignature
ArrOw · 6 games
67%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
hAze · 5 games
40%
Rubick
Rubick
ArrOw · 4 games
25%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
TA2000 · 3 games
100%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
Malady · 3 games
33%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Dodren · 3 games
100%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
ArrOw · 3 games
67%

HF

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
443 picks · 987 bans
52%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
420 picks · 584 bans
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
366 picks · 702 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
350 picks · 606 bans
55%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
319 picks · 308 bans
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
298 picks · 260 bans
45%
Tusk
Tusk
297 picks · 188 bans
51%
Phoenix
Phoenix
279 picks · 401 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)53% vs 57%
Hero pool strength53% V-Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% HF
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Model check result
Model favoriteHF · 59%
Series resultV-Gaming 2:1
Series predictionmissed