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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 6 · BO3
result vs prediction
V-Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
46%54%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Hydraloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

V-Gaming

Lina
Linasignature
hAze · 37 games
62%
Lion
Lionsignature
ArrOw · 34 games
65%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
ArrOw · 26 games
65%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Malady · 25 games
76%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
hAze · 24 games
58%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Malady · 22 games
59%
Weaver
Weaversignature
ArrOw · 21 game
67%
Mars
Marssignature
laise · 20 games
65%

Hydra

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Askold · 19 games
53%
Bane
Banesignature
Zayac · 13 games
77%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Blizzy · 12 games
100%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
Muka · 12 games
50%
Chen
Chensignature
Zayac · 11 games
82%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
Muka · 10 games
80%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritsignature
Askold · 10 games
70%
Lion
Lionsignature
Zayac · 10 games
60%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
349 picks · 515 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
315 picks · 179 bans
48%
Bane
Bane
301 picks · 243 bans
58%
Weaver
Weaver
294 picks · 650 bans
56%
Monkey King
Monkey King
258 picks · 733 bans
58%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
254 picks · 398 bans
46%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
230 picks · 309 bans
57%
Disruptor
Disruptor
223 picks · 146 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 71%
Hero pool strength55% Hydra
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total54% Hydra
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct7:31
V-Gaming 47%Hydra 53%
The model gave 53% on Hydra — the game was taken by Hydra in 33:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lifestealer
LifestealerTA2000
52% · 55 games56% · 128 games
RazorKami
Razor
Timbersaw
Timbersawlaise
50% · 128 games50% · 131 game
BatriderAskold
Batrider
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld DestroyerhAze
48% · 55 games47% · 98 games
KunkkaBlizzy
Kunkka
Lion
LionArrOw
53% · 207 games49% · 22 games
ChenZayac
Chen
Io
Ioantoha
47% · 66 games47% · 132 games
RubickMuka
Rubick
Game 2prediction missed30:4
V-Gaming 49%Hydra 51%
The model gave 51% on Hydra — the game was taken by V-Gaming in 27:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kunkka
KunkkaTA2000
48% · 107 games59% · 52 games
LifestealerKami
Lifestealer
Necrophos
Necrophoslaise
63% · 31 game52% · 52 games
Centaur WarrunnerBlizzy
Centaur Warrunner
Storm Spirit
Storm SpirithAze
43% · 153 games51% · 144 games
PuckAskold
Puck
Bane
BaneArrOw
45% · 125 games49% · 166 games
WeaverMuka
Weaver
Io
Ioantoha
53% · 129 games46% · 131 game
GrimstrokeZayac
Grimstroke
Game 3prediction missed48:22
V-Gaming 48%Hydra 52%
The model gave 52% on Hydra — the game was taken by V-Gaming in 52:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Kunkka
KunkkaTA2000
47% · 101 game59% · 324 games
PuckAskold
Puck
Void Spirit
Void SpirithAze
52% · 324 games44% · 103 games
Phantom AssassinKami
Phantom Assassin
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld Destroyerlaise
41% · 69 games47% · 72 games
Night StalkerBlizzy
Night Stalker
Monkey King
Monkey KingArrOw
53% · 205 games47% · 144 games
DisruptorZayac
Disruptor
Bane
Baneantoha
52% · 156 games54% · 212 games
WeaverMuka
Weaver
Model check result
Model favoriteHydra · 54%
Series resultV-Gaming 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3