Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022 — Восточная Европа · BO3
result vs prediction
V-Gamingwin 2:0series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Hydraloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
V-Gaming
Linasignature
hAze · 37 games
Lionsignature
ArrOw · 35 games
Shadow Demonsignature
ArrOw · 26 games
Treant Protectorsignature
Malady · 25 games
Invokeroften banned
hAze · 24 games
Disruptor
Malady · 22 games
Weaversignature
ArrOw · 21 game
Marssignature
laise · 20 games
Hydra
Ember Spiritoften banned
Askold · 19 games
Weaveroften banned
Muka · 14 games
Banesignature
Zayac · 13 games
Beastmastersignature
Blizzy · 12 games
Chensignature
Zayac · 12 games
Dark Willowsignature
Muka · 10 games
Earth Spiritsignature
Askold · 10 games
Lionsignature
Zayac · 10 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
361 picks · 535 bans
Bane
322 picks · 244 bans
Snapfire
321 picks · 196 bans
Weaver
308 picks · 677 bans
Monkey King
262 picks · 754 bans
Tidehunter
247 picks · 402 bans
Disruptor
235 picks · 150 bans
Ember Spirit
230 picks · 320 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)61% vs 69%
Hero pool strength55% Hydra
Head-to-head1 – 1
Model total52% V-Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:7
V-Gaming 51%Hydra 49%
The model gave 51% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by V-Gaming in 36:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeTA2000
Phantom LancerKami
Night Stalkerlaise
Ember SpiritAskold
PuckhAze
Outworld DestroyerBlizzy
MiranaArrOw
Monkey KingMuka
Baneantoha
LionZayac
Game 2prediction missed36:31
V-Gaming 47%Hydra 53%
The model gave 53% on Hydra — the game was taken by V-Gaming in 1:03:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
TerrorbladeTA2000
Monkey KingKami
Queen of PainhAze
KunkkaAskold
Spirit Breakerlaise
UnderlordBlizzy
GrimstrokeArrOw
MiranaMuka
Abaddonantoha
BaneZayac
Model check result
Model favoriteV-Gaming · 52%
Series resultV-Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 2