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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
V-Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

V-Gaming

Mars
Marsoften banned
laise · 5 games
80%
Rubick
Rubick
ArrOw · 3 games
33%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Dodren · 3 games
100%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shaman
ArrOw · 3 games
67%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
TA2000 · 2 games
50%
Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Dodren · 2 games
50%
Lion
Lion
ArrOw · 2 games
100%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Kiritych · 2 games
100%

Nemiga Gaming

Mars
Marsoften banned
Ainkrad · 12 games
58%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
tatakae · 6 games
50%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 5 games
40%
Tusk
Tusk
Lodine · 5 games
60%
Jakiro
Jakiro
Lodine · 4 games
25%
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenoften banned
tatakae · 4 games
75%
Oracle
Oracleoften banned
Lodine · 4 games
25%
Witch Doctor
Witch Doctor
Lodine · 4 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
397 picks · 888 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
369 picks · 534 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
320 picks · 574 bans
51%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
285 picks · 520 bans
56%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
285 picks · 243 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
255 picks · 161 bans
50%
Wraith King
Wraith King
239 picks · 388 bans
56%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
238 picks · 520 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 52%
Hero pool strength56% V-Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Nemiga Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed41:14
V-Gaming 47%Nemiga Gaming 53%
The model gave 53% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by V-Gaming in 46:42.
Game 2prediction correct20:33
V-Gaming 47%Nemiga Gaming 53%
The model gave 53% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 41:35.
Game 3prediction correct27:16
V-Gaming 47%Nemiga Gaming 53%
The model gave 53% on Nemiga Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 34:03.
Model check result
Model favoriteNemiga Gaming · 53%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3