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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 5 · BO3
result vs prediction
V-Gamingloss 1:2
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Nemiga Gamingwin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

V-Gaming

Lion
Lionsignature
ArrOw · 34 games
65%
Lina
Linasignature
hAze · 32 games
63%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonsignature
ArrOw · 24 games
71%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Malady · 24 games
79%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Malady · 20 games
60%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
hAze · 18 games
56%
Mars
Marssignature
laise · 18 games
61%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
laise · 17 games
59%

Nemiga Gaming

Mars
Marsoften banned
TheChosenOne · 28 games
36%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demonoften banned
Heaven · 27 games
48%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Heaven · 19 games
47%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Lodine · 19 games
63%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Ainkrad · 16 games
44%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Ainkrad · 16 games
56%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Lodine · 15 games
47%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
Heaven · 15 games
40%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
255 picks · 383 bans
46%
Mars
Mars
253 picks · 355 bans
47%
Monkey King
Monkey King
251 picks · 589 bans
62%
Bane
Bane
223 picks · 153 bans
59%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
216 picks · 251 bans
46%
Lion
Lion
214 picks · 98 bans
52%
Lina
Lina
211 picks · 454 bans
55%
Pangolier
Pangolier
208 picks · 256 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)63% vs 40%
Hero pool strength59% V-Gaming
Head-to-head2 – 5
Model total65% V-Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed19:35
V-Gaming 61%Nemiga Gaming 39%
The model gave 61% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 31:48.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeTA2000
61% · 112 games53% · 42 games
Naga SirenKiritych
Naga Siren
Beastmaster
Beastmasterb1kA
56% · 101 game46% · 182 games
Storm SpiritAinkrad
Storm Spirit
Batrider
BatriderhAze
48% · 95 games40% · 117 games
Dragon KnightTheChosenOne
Dragon Knight
Monkey King
Monkey KingArrOw
55% · 106 games48% · 105 games
Dark WillowHeaven
Dark Willow
Disruptor
Disruptorantoha
52% · 58 games38% · 26 games
Spirit BreakerVANSKOR
Spirit Breaker
Game 2prediction correct42:20
V-Gaming 57%Nemiga Gaming 43%
The model gave 57% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by V-Gaming in 42:06.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
JuggernautTA2000
55% · 59 games51% · 98 games
KunkkaKiritych
Kunkka
Invoker
InvokerhAze
42% · 102 games57% · 16 games
TinkerAinkrad
Tinker
Mars
MarsArrOw
46% · 202 games50% · 106 games
BloodseekerTheChosenOne
Bloodseeker
Dark Willow
Dark Willowb1kA
46% · 65 games58% · 194 games
Monkey KingHeaven
Monkey King
Jakiro
Jakiroantoha
36% · 23 games60% · 37 games
SilencerVANSKOR
Silencer
Game 3prediction missed20:33
V-Gaming 61%Nemiga Gaming 39%
The model gave 61% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by Nemiga Gaming in 37:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeTA2000
55% · 127 games46% · 37 games
Naga SirenKiritych
Naga Siren
Invoker
InvokerhAze
59% · 140 games46% · 138 games
TimbersawTheChosenOne
Timbersaw
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld DestroyerArrOw
46% · 36 games46% · 241 game
Void SpiritAinkrad
Void Spirit
Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritb1kA
52% · 152 games42% · 104 games
Dark WillowHeaven
Dark Willow
Abaddon
Abaddonantoha
53% · 127 games50% · 62 games
BaneVANSKOR
Bane
Model check result
Model favoriteV-Gaming · 65%
Series resultNemiga Gaming 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3