Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 4 · BO3
result vs prediction
V-Gamingwin 2:0series probability
94%6%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Qqwerty44loss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
V-Gaming
Lionsignature
ArrOw · 33 games
Treant Protectorsignature
Malady · 22 games
Shadow Demonsignature
ArrOw · 21 game
Linasignature
hAze · 20 games
Puckoften banned
hAze · 17 games
Abaddonoften banned
Malady · 15 games
Disruptorsignature
Malady · 14 games
Axeoften banned
TA2000 · 13 games
qwerty44
Invokeroften banned
USHUSHUSH · 8 games
Bane
Fezor · 5 games
Bloodseekeroften banned
Kom4rt · 4 games
Phantom Lanceroften banned
Kom4rt · 4 games
Clinkzoften banned
Kom4rt · 3 games
Disruptor
Fezor · 3 games
Lunaoften banned
Kom4rt · 3 games
Omniknightoften banned
Fezor · 3 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
361 picks · 177 bans
Hoodwink
314 picks · 116 bans
Lina
271 picks · 501 bans
Mars
264 picks · 424 bans
Pangolier
255 picks · 347 bans
Luna
247 picks · 336 bans
Shadow Demon
230 picks · 240 bans
Nyx Assassin
229 picks · 493 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)72% vs 25%
Hero pool strength70% V-Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total94% V-Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:9
V-Gaming 82%qwerty44 18%
The model gave 82% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by V-Gaming in 24:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Sirenlil pleb
LunaKom4rt
BatriderhAze
LeshracUSHUSHUSH
Vengeful Spiritlaise
AbaddonFezor
Monkey KingArrOw
DisruptorMalady
Game 2prediction correct33:10
V-Gaming 81%qwerty44 19%
The model gave 81% on V-Gaming — the game was taken by V-Gaming in 21:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga SirenTA2000
MedusaKom4rt
Bloodseekerlaise
WindrangerUSHUSHUSH
TinyhAze
ClockwerkFezor
LionArrOw
DisruptorMalady
Model check result
Model favoriteV-Gaming · 94%
Series resultV-Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2