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Dota 2 Champions League 2021 Season 2 · BO3
result vs prediction
V-Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Tundra Esportswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

V-Gaming

Lion
Lionsignature
ArrOw · 15 games
67%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
Malady · 9 games
56%
Mars
Marssignature
laise · 8 games
63%
Puck
Puckoften banned
hAze · 8 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willow
ArrOw · 7 games
43%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Malady · 7 games
71%
Viper
Viperoften banned
hAze · 7 games
57%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
laise · 6 games
33%

Tundra Esports

Puck
Puckoften banned
Nine · 15 games
40%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Sneyking · 12 games
50%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
33 · 12 games
75%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Fata · 11 games
73%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
Sneyking · 11 games
64%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
Fata · 10 games
60%
Mirana
Miranasignature
Sneyking · 8 games
63%
Medusa
Medusasignature
Skiter · 7 games
71%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
425 picks · 169 bans
51%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
314 picks · 475 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
305 picks · 522 bans
50%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
301 picks · 612 bans
57%
Puck
Puck
298 picks · 712 bans
48%
Enchantress
Enchantress
273 picks · 347 bans
48%
Snapfire
Snapfire
266 picks · 152 bans
53%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
255 picks · 105 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 63%
Hero pool strength51% Tundra Esports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total58% Tundra Esports
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:34
V-Gaming 43%Tundra Esports 57%
The model gave 57% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 35:02.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Lina
LinahAze
47% · 97 games58% · 95 games
TerrorbladeSkiter
Terrorblade
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerTA2000
55% · 40 games47% · 63 games
BatriderNine
Batrider
Tidehunter
Tidehunterlaise
52% · 102 games35% · 36 games
Brewmaster33
Brewmaster
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonArrOw
53% · 56 games48% · 90 games
ClockwerkSneyking
Clockwerk
Oracle
OracleMalady
50% · 123 games50% · 134 games
Nyx Assassindnz
Nyx Assassin
Game 2prediction correct13:30
V-Gaming 45%Tundra Esports 55%
The model gave 55% on Tundra Esports — the game was taken by Tundra Esports in 38:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
TerrorbladeTA2000
55% · 122 games54% · 53 games
Dark Seer33
Dark Seer
Puck
PuckhAze
53% · 250 games37% · 53 games
Phantom LancerSkiter
Phantom Lancer
Underlord
Underlordlaise
46% · 36 games44% · 139 games
Earth SpiritNine
Earth Spirit
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonArrOw
53% · 69 games57% · 152 games
Nyx AssassinSneyking
Nyx Assassin
Disruptor
DisruptorMalady
52% · 54 games45% · 134 games
Abaddondnz
Abaddon
Model check result
Model favoriteTundra Esports · 58%
Series resultTundra Esports 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2