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European Pro League Season 34 · BO3
result vs prediction
Valinorloss 1:2
series probability
73%27%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Ilbirs eSportswin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Valinor

Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Stoic · 7 games
57%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunnersignature
Wuiter · 6 games
67%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
G.T.I · 6 games
67%
Tiny
Tinyoften banned
G.T.I · 6 games
50%
Tusk
Tusk
Stoic · 6 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
G.T.I · 5 games
40%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Wuiter · 5 games
20%
Phoenix
Phoenix
Wuiter · 5 games
60%

Ilbirs eSports

Faceless Void
Faceless Void
xsvampire · 2 games
100%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
xsvampire · 2 games
50%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastoften banned
Norma · 2 games
100%
Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
egx · 2 games
50%
Abaddon
Abaddonoften banned
egx · 1 game
0%
Axe
Axeoften banned
Askold · 1 game
100%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 1 game
0%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
605 picks · 936 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
526 picks · 428 bans
47%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
475 picks · 629 bans
56%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
454 picks · 599 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
438 picks · 947 bans
52%
Warlock
Warlock
404 picks · 244 bans
47%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
396 picks · 662 bans
59%
Tiny
Tiny
389 picks · 435 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 29%
Hero pool strength51% Ilbirs eSports
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total73% Valinor
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:34
Valinor 62%Ilbirs eSports 38%
The model gave 62% on Valinor — the game was taken by Ilbirs eSports in 32:14.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Alchemist
AlchemistCoblackk
47% · 26 games54% · 31 game
LargoNorma
Largo
Sniper
SniperG.T.I
53% · 33 games48% · 35 games
Omniknightegx
Omniknight
Tidehunter
TidehunterWuiter
54% · 160 games51% · 289 games
Ember SpiritRain
Ember Spirit
Hoodwink
HoodwinkJeezy
47% · 116 games48% · 163 games
Muertaxsvampire
Muerta
Ringmaster
RingmasterStoic
48% · 183 games
Game 2prediction correct32:20
Valinor 62%Ilbirs eSports 38%
The model gave 62% on Valinor — the game was taken by Valinor in 39:32.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
MuertaCoblackk
50% · 233 games50% · 183 games
Dragon Knightegx
Dragon Knight
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld DestroyerG.T.I
63% · 11 games48% · 95 games
Queen of PainRain
Queen of Pain
Largo
LargoWuiter
56% · 58 games52% · 88 games
Primal BeastNorma
Primal Beast
Clockwerk
ClockwerkStoic
49% · 138 games48% · 238 games
Jakiroxsvampire
Jakiro
Dark Willow
Dark WillowJeezy
47% · 164 games
Game 3prediction missed37:48
Valinor 62%Ilbirs eSports 38%
The model gave 62% on Valinor — the game was taken by Ilbirs eSports in 59:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Muerta
MuertaCoblackk
51% · 215 games50% · 394 games
PangolierNorma
Pangolier
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainG.T.I
43% · 294 games55% · 252 games
Shadow FiendRain
Shadow Fiend
Underlord
UnderlordWuiter
45% · 139 games60% · 281 game
Ursaegx
Ursa
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonJeezy
46% · 275 games49% · 470 games
Tinyxsvampire
Tiny
Tusk
TuskStoic
47% · 474 games
Model check result
Model favoriteValinor · 73%
Series resultIlbirs eSports 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3