FISSURE Universe: Episode 8. Открытая квалификация · BO1
result vs predictionVValinorwin 1:0
series probability
35%65%
probability at match start · final 1:0
Team Spirit Academyloss 0:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Valinor
No games played over 6 months.
Team Spirit Academy
Dark Willow
Aidar · 12 games
Witch Doctor
Aidar · 12 games
Abaddonoften banned
rubikon155 · 10 games
Primal Beastoften banned
SunshineRR · 9 games
Tidehunteroften banned
SunshineRR · 9 games
Dawnbreaker
SunshineRR · 8 games
Jakirooften banned
kyford · 8 games
Techies
Aidar · 8 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
531 picks · 765 bans
Tusk
492 picks · 342 bans
Dragon Knight
463 picks · 636 bans
Centaur Warrunner
439 picks · 551 bans
Shadow Demon
375 picks · 674 bans
Gyrocopter
353 picks · 570 bans
Mars
342 picks · 457 bans
Slardar
323 picks · 887 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)40% vs 41%
Hero pool strength57% Valinor
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% Team Spirit Academy
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed
Valinor 35%Team Spirit Academy 65%
The model gave 65% on Team Spirit Academy — the game was taken by Valinor.
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit Academy · 65%
Series resultValinor 1:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 1