EEF Dota 2 Qualifier 2022 · BO3
result vs prediction
Венгрияloss 0:2series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Украинаwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Венгрия
No games played over 6 months.
Украина
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
652 picks · 515 bans
Marci
476 picks · 704 bans
Dawnbreaker
432 picks · 603 bans
Puck
422 picks · 884 bans
Winter Wyvern
339 picks · 416 bans
Zeus
289 picks · 389 bans
Death Prophet
286 picks · 475 bans
Razor
272 picks · 486 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)75% vs 78%
Hero pool strength50% Венгрия
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total53% Украина
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:42
Венгрия 47%Украина 53%
The model gave 53% on Украина — the game was taken by Украина in 35:15.
Game 2prediction correct32:8
Венгрия 47%Украина 53%
The model gave 53% on Украина — the game was taken by Украина in 33:32.
Model check result
Model favoriteУкраина · 53%
Series resultУкраина 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2