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WePlay AniMajor 2021 · BO2
result vs prediction
Vici Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 2:0
AS Monaco Gambitloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Vici Gaming

Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Ori · 23 games
61%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Pyw · 18 games
83%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Dy · 17 games
53%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 17 games
76%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Dy · 16 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
ELeVeN · 16 games
69%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Dy · 15 games
73%
Mars
Marsoften banned
ELeVeN · 14 games
57%

AS Monaco Gambit

Earth Spirit
Earth Spiritoften banned
xsvampire · 5 games
80%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Blizzy · 5 games
40%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
PuberrrR · 4 games
25%
Phantom Lancer
Phantom Lanceroften banned
xannii · 4 games
50%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Blizzy · 4 games
50%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 4 games
75%
Mirana
Mirana
xsvampire · 3 games
0%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Lorenof · 3 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
386 picks · 213 bans
49%
Puck
Puck
386 picks · 1000 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
373 picks · 630 bans
53%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
362 picks · 359 bans
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
322 picks · 184 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
292 picks · 221 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
291 picks · 201 bans
51%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
277 picks · 612 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)49% vs 45%
Hero pool strength59% Vici Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total70% Vici Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:10
Vici Gaming 70%AS Monaco Gambit 30%
The model gave 70% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 43:10.
Game 2prediction correct25:12
Vici Gaming 70%AS Monaco Gambit 30%
The model gave 70% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 35:13.
Model check result
Model favoriteVici Gaming · 70%
Series resultVici Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2