The International 2022. Региональные отборочные · BO3
result vs prediction
Vici Gamingwin 2:0series probability
47%53%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Invictus Gamingloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Vici Gaming
Hoodwink
Yds · 10 games
Tinysignature
poyoyo · 10 games
Dragon Knightoften banned
Yang · 8 games
Grimstrokeoften banned
Victoria · 8 games
Pucksignature
Xm · 7 games
Lifestealersignature
poyoyo · 6 games
Razorsignature
Yang · 6 games
Viperoften banned
Xm · 5 games
Invictus Gaming
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
717 picks · 570 bans
Puck
499 picks · 1025 bans
Dawnbreaker
497 picks · 657 bans
Marci
486 picks · 808 bans
Winter Wyvern
371 picks · 428 bans
Snapfire
331 picks · 160 bans
Zeus
329 picks · 396 bans
Razor
302 picks · 581 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 71%
Hero pool strength52% Vici Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 3
Model total53% Invictus Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed41:16
Vici Gaming 47%Invictus Gaming 53%
The model gave 53% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 43:41.
Game 2prediction missed31:22
Vici Gaming 47%Invictus Gaming 53%
The model gave 53% on Invictus Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 44:18.
Model check result
Model favoriteInvictus Gaming · 53%
Series resultVici Gaming 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2