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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Китай 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Vici Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
41%59%
probability at match start · final 2:0
LGD Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Vici Gaming

Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Pyw · 16 games
94%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
Ori · 16 games
56%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
ELeVeN · 15 games
67%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 13 games
69%
Mars
Marssignature
ELeVeN · 11 games
64%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Dy · 10 games
50%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
poyoyo · 9 games
67%
Juggernaut
Juggernautsignature
poyoyo · 8 games
63%

LGD Gaming

Puck
Pucksignature
NothingToSay · 23 games
83%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
y` · 20 games
75%
Tusk
Tusksignature
XinQ · 18 games
72%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Ame · 17 games
65%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
NothingToSay · 16 games
63%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordsignature
Ame · 16 games
81%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
NothingToSay · 15 games
47%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
y` · 14 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
436 picks · 973 bans
52%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
406 picks · 564 bans
52%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
364 picks · 710 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
349 picks · 583 bans
53%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
307 picks · 299 bans
47%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
304 picks · 299 bans
51%
Tusk
Tusk
296 picks · 207 bans
52%
Lion
Lion
260 picks · 140 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 60%
Hero pool strength53% LGD Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total59% LGD Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed38:21
Vici Gaming 47%LGD Gaming 53%
The model gave 53% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 33:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dark Seer
Dark SeerELeVeN
48% · 18 games66% · 7 games
Faceless VoidAme
Faceless Void
Spectre
Spectrepoyoyo
56% · 8 games48% · 77 games
PangolierFaith_bian
Pangolier
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritOri
59% · 30 games56% · 16 games
Dragon KnightNothingToSay
Dragon Knight
Death Prophet
Death ProphetDy
44% · 61 game48% · 30 games
SnapfireXinQ
Snapfire
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinPyw
51% · 47 games48% · 34 games
Ancient Apparitiony`
Ancient Apparition
Game 2prediction missed29:18
Vici Gaming 47%LGD Gaming 53%
The model gave 53% on LGD Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 41:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Luna
Lunapoyoyo
55% · 19 games48% · 54 games
TerrorbladeAme
Terrorblade
Timbersaw
TimbersawELeVeN
45% · 33 games48% · 39 games
InvokerNothingToSay
Invoker
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritOri
47% · 39 gameslittle data
DazzleFaith_bian
Dazzle
Death Prophet
Death ProphetDy
50% · 79 games53% · 90 games
PangolierXinQ
Pangolier
Nyx Assassin
Nyx AssassinPyw
57% · 53 games45% · 40 games
Snapfirey`
Snapfire
Model check result
Model favoriteLGD Gaming · 59%
Series resultVici Gaming 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2