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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Китай. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Vici Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
68%32%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Limitloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Vici Gaming

Morphling
Morphlingsignature
poyoyo · 11 games
73%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
Frisk · 10 games
40%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
niu · 9 games
67%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Frisk · 8 games
88%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Yang · 8 games
88%
Marci
Marcisignature
Frisk · 7 games
86%
Mars
Marssignature
niu · 7 games
71%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Yang · 7 games
57%

Limit

Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Victoria · 8 games
100%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Echo · 8 games
75%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Yds · 7 games
86%
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendoften banned
Xm · 5 games
100%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Srf · 4 games
100%
Doom
Doomoften banned
Srf · 4 games
50%
Lich
Lich
Victoria · 4 games
100%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Srf · 3 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
527 picks · 357 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
497 picks · 488 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
485 picks · 426 bans
48%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
371 picks · 433 bans
57%
Mirana
Mirana
354 picks · 347 bans
54%
Snapfire
Snapfire
319 picks · 161 bans
46%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
288 picks · 696 bans
49%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
282 picks · 178 bans
59%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 71%
Hero pool strength57% Limit
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total68% Vici Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed16:34
Vici Gaming 59%Limit 41%
The model gave 59% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Limit in 39:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Outworld Destroyer
Outworld DestroyerSetsu
53% · 32 games49% · 76 games
Nature's ProphetXm
Nature's Prophet
Lifestealer
Lifestealerpoyoyo
58% · 72 games43% · 86 games
ZeusEcho
Zeus
Beastmaster
Beastmasterniu
54% · 235 games47% · 108 games
Primal BeastSrf
Primal Beast
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenfy
52% · 99 games49% · 90 games
EnchantressVictoria
Enchantress
Disruptor
DisruptorYang
48% · 120 games48% · 198 games
TuskYds
Tusk
Game 2prediction correct24:7
Vici Gaming 60%Limit 40%
The model gave 60% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 27:05.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Siren
Naga Sirenpoyoyo
50% · 134 games49% · 100 games
MedusaXm
Medusa
Death Prophet
Death ProphetSetsu
54% · 254 games47% · 184 games
BroodmotherSrf
Broodmother
Marci
Marciniu
53% · 191 game50% · 369 games
TuskEcho
Tusk
Rubick
Rubickfy
51% · 304 games48% · 272 games
HoodwinkYds
Hoodwink
Crystal Maiden
Crystal MaidenYang
51% · 209 games45% · 167 games
SilencerVictoria
Silencer
Game 3prediction correct36:8
Vici Gaming 60%Limit 40%
The model gave 60% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 33:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendpoyoyo
47% · 128 games55% · 230 games
LinaXm
Lina
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritSetsu
44% · 355 games46% · 212 games
DoomSrf
Doom
Death Prophet
Death Prophetniu
47% · 343 games53% · 408 games
PangolierEcho
Pangolier
Tusk
Tuskfy
49% · 367 games49% · 409 games
RubickVictoria
Rubick
Silencer
SilencerYang
48% · 156 games63% · 90 games
RikiYds
Riki
Model check result
Model favoriteVici Gaming · 68%
Series resultVici Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3