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WePlay AniMajor 2021 · BO2
result vs prediction
Vici Gamingloss 1:1
series probability
59%41%
probability at match start · final 1:1
Nigma Galaxyloss 1:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Vici Gaming

Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Ori · 21 game
62%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Dy · 17 games
76%
Shadow Shaman
Shadow Shamansignature
Pyw · 17 games
88%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
Dy · 16 games
63%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
ELeVeN · 16 games
69%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Dy · 14 games
79%
Mars
Marsoften banned
ELeVeN · 14 games
57%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassinsignature
Dy · 14 games
71%

Nigma Galaxy

Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
GH · 10 games
50%
Puck
Puckoften banned
w33 · 9 games
44%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
Miracle- · 8 games
63%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekeroften banned
MinD_ContRoL · 7 games
57%
Io
Iooften banned
GH · 7 games
43%
Clockwerk
Clockwerk
GH · 6 games
50%
Dark Willow
Dark Willowsignature
GH · 6 games
83%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
w33 · 6 games
33%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
383 picks · 997 bans
50%
Lion
Lion
381 picks · 212 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
371 picks · 619 bans
53%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
357 picks · 362 bans
49%
Snapfire
Snapfire
318 picks · 184 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
292 picks · 221 bans
53%
Tiny
Tiny
286 picks · 197 bans
51%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
281 picks · 616 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 38%
Hero pool strength58% Vici Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total59% Vici Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct45:24
Vici Gaming 57%Nigma Galaxy 43%
The model gave 57% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 55:11.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidpoyoyo
44% · 40 games51% · 104 games
MorphlingMiracle-
Morphling
Void Spirit
Void SpiritOri
54% · 133 games46% · 44 games
LycaniLTW
Lycan
Doom
DoomELeVeN
47% · 49 games52% · 76 games
Dark SeerMinD_ContRoL
Dark Seer
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeDy
47% · 145 games60% · 101 game
ClockwerkGH
Clockwerk
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritPyw
48% · 80 games47% · 122 games
SnapfireKuroKy
Snapfire
Game 2prediction missed12:41
Vici Gaming 57%Nigma Galaxy 43%
The model gave 57% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Nigma Galaxy in 31:44.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Spectre
Spectrepoyoyo
54% · 39 games43% · 260 games
PuckMiracle-
Puck
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerELeVeN
54% · 126 games53% · 79 games
UrsaiLTW
Ursa
Tiny
TinyOri
51% · 152 games52% · 196 games
MarsMinD_ContRoL
Mars
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanPyw
45% · 172 games53% · 70 games
Dark WillowGH
Dark Willow
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeDy
43% · 212 games55% · 96 games
Ancient ApparitionKuroKy
Ancient Apparition
Model check result
Model favoriteVici Gaming · 59%
Accuracy by game1 of 2