?
arrow_backBack to match
The International 2022: Last Chance · BO3
result vs prediction
Vici Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 2:0
nounsloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Vici Gaming

Marci
Marcisignature
Frisk · 9 games
67%
Tiny
Tiny
Yds · 9 games
56%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
Frisk · 8 games
38%
Puck
Pucksignature
Xm · 8 games
63%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Yang · 7 games
43%
Viper
Viperoften banned
Xm · 7 games
57%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
Yds · 6 games
33%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
poyoyo · 6 games
83%

nouns

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Moo · 12 games
75%
Enigma
Enigmasignature
ZfreeK · 11 games
73%
Tiny
Tinysignature
ZfreeK · 11 games
73%
Marci
Marcioften banned
Husky · 10 games
50%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Gunnar · 10 games
60%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvernoften banned
Husky · 10 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Husky · 9 games
56%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Gunnar · 9 games
67%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
542 picks · 421 bans
53%
Marci
Marci
453 picks · 675 bans
54%
Puck
Puck
325 picks · 745 bans
55%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
321 picks · 442 bans
45%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
297 picks · 492 bans
49%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
285 picks · 360 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
258 picks · 843 bans
52%
Dazzle
Dazzle
250 picks · 157 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)44% vs 54%
Hero pool strength52% nouns
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total61% nouns
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed25:14
Vici Gaming 45%nouns 55%
The model gave 55% on nouns — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 31:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingpoyoyo
47% · 83 games48% · 30 games
Lone DruidCostabile
Lone Druid
Mars
Marsniu
49% · 223 games45% · 74 games
Shadow FiendGunnar
Shadow Fiend
Pugna
PugnaXm
45% · 72 games54% · 257 games
Dragon KnightMoo
Dragon Knight
Snapfire
SnapfireFrisk
53% · 154 games51% · 216 games
EnchantressZfreeK
Enchantress
Undying
UndyingYang
53% · 86 games48% · 41 game
Elder TitanHusky
Elder Titan
Game 2prediction missed40:14
Vici Gaming 44%nouns 56%
The model gave 56% on nouns — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 31:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernaut
Juggernautpoyoyo
43% · 67 games60% · 158 games
Faceless VoidCostabile
Faceless Void
Puck
PuckXm
50% · 204 games45% · 26 games
Primal BeastMoo
Primal Beast
Mars
Marsniu
49% · 245 games49% · 290 games
Void SpiritGunnar
Void Spirit
Clockwerk
ClockwerkYang
48% · 127 games51% · 149 games
TuskZfreeK
Tusk
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanFrisk
46% · 49 games53% · 69 games
GyrocopterHusky
Gyrocopter
Model check result
Model favoritenouns · 61%
Series resultVici Gaming 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2