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PGL Wallachia Season 7. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Vici Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
49%51%
probability at match start · final 2:1
REKONIXloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Vici Gaming

Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Xm · 10 games
60%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
lou · 8 games
50%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Dy · 7 games
43%
Disruptor
Disruptor
Dy · 6 games
50%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
lou · 6 games
67%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Xm · 5 games
40%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
pLAnet · 5 games
60%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Ws · 5 games
100%

REKONIX

Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Varizh · 17 games
71%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
inYourdreaM · 10 games
80%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Fbz · 10 games
50%
Queen of Pain
Queen of Painsignature
inYourdreaM · 10 games
70%
Tusk
Tusksignature
dalul · 9 games
78%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocoptersignature
TraVins · 8 games
75%
Razor
Razorsignature
Fbz · 8 games
88%
Snapfire
Snapfire
dalul · 7 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
544 picks · 880 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
518 picks · 390 bans
48%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
479 picks · 641 bans
49%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
466 picks · 596 bans
57%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
399 picks · 835 bans
53%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
365 picks · 587 bans
59%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
350 picks · 574 bans
49%
Mars
Mars
347 picks · 489 bans
47%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 79%
Hero pool strength56% REKONIX
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% REKONIX
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:35
Vici Gaming 49%REKONIX 51%
The model gave 51% on REKONIX — the game was taken by REKONIX in 1:00:16.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingshiro
48% · 153 games47% · 356 games
GyrocopterTraVins
Gyrocopter
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur WarrunnerFaith_bian
53% · 355 games50% · 330 games
BeastmasterFbz
Beastmaster
Tiny
TinyXm
48% · 475 games52% · 174 games
KunkkainYourdreaM
Kunkka
Windranger
WindrangerpLAnet
43% · 262 games62% · 10 games
Largodalul
Largo
Pugna
Pugnay`
61% · 175 games49% · 550 games
JakiroVarizh
Jakiro
Game 2prediction correct32:10
Vici Gaming 50%REKONIX 50%
The model gave 50% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 28:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Marci
Marcishiro
47% · 154 games44% · 172 games
WindrangerTraVins
Windranger
Puck
PuckXm
56% · 317 games47% · 443 games
Dragon KnightinYourdreaM
Dragon Knight
Mars
MarsFaith_bian
47% · 244 games48% · 107 games
KunkkaFbz
Kunkka
Warlock
Warlocky`
47% · 288 games54% · 116 games
Pudgedalul
Pudge
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidpLAnet
65% · 28 games56% · 193 games
SilencerVarizh
Silencer
Game 3prediction missed26:25
Vici Gaming 48%REKONIX 52%
The model gave 52% on REKONIX — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 52:22.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendshiro
52% · 165 games46% · 130 games
WindrangerTraVins
Windranger
Puck
PuckXm
49% · 319 games51% · 170 games
DawnbreakerFbz
Dawnbreaker
Mars
MarsFaith_bian
46% · 298 games51% · 247 games
TinyinYourdreaM
Tiny
Rubick
RubickpLAnet
50% · 72 games52% · 225 games
Hoodwinkdalul
Hoodwink
Omniknight
Omniknighty`
51% · 27 games55% · 109 games
PhoenixVarizh
Phoenix
Model check result
Model favoriteREKONIX · 51%
Series resultVici Gaming 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 3