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FMWH Dota2 Championship Season 3 · BO3
result vs prediction
Vici Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Sparking Arrow Gamingloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Vici Gaming

Brewmaster
Brewmaster
Dy · 4 games
50%
Mars
Marsoften banned
ELeVeN · 4 games
100%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
poyoyo · 3 games
67%
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangeroften banned
poyoyo · 3 games
100%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
Pyw · 3 games
67%
Troll Warlord
Troll Warlordoften banned
poyoyo · 3 games
67%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
ELeVeN · 2 games
100%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Ori · 2 games
100%

Sparking Arrow Gaming

Elder Titan
Elder Titan
XCJ · 5 games
80%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Son GoKu · 3 games
100%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
September · 3 games
67%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Dstones · 3 games
33%
Tusk
Tusk
September · 3 games
67%
Brewmaster
Brewmaster
Son GoKu · 2 games
50%
Lina
Linaoften banned
Dstones · 2 games
0%
Mirana
Mirana
September · 2 games
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
339 picks · 686 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
321 picks · 399 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
269 picks · 472 bans
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
250 picks · 210 bans
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
224 picks · 332 bans
56%
Rubick
Rubick
224 picks · 124 bans
51%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
215 picks · 638 bans
59%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
214 picks · 435 bans
57%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 64%
Hero pool strength53% Vici Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Vici Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:11
Vici Gaming 50%Sparking Arrow Gaming 50%
The model gave 50% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 23:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
LeshracOri
37% · 18 games62% · 22 games
Ember SpiritDstones
Ember Spirit
Weaver
Weaverpoyoyo
42% · 17 games53% · 27 games
TimbersawSon GoKu
Timbersaw
Night Stalker
Night StalkerELeVeN
57% · 6 games54% · 33 games
Shadow ShamanSeptember
Shadow Shaman
Clockwerk
ClockwerkPyw
43% · 26 games63% · 4 games
Elder TitanXCJ
Elder Titan
Witch Doctor
Witch DoctorDy
49% · 19 games
Game 2prediction missed22:36
Vici Gaming 51%Sparking Arrow Gaming 49%
The model gave 51% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Sparking Arrow Gaming in 57:21.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Leshrac
LeshracOri
44% · 16 games58% · 43 games
PuckDstones
Puck
Ursa
Ursapoyoyo
39% · 43 games50% · 19 games
LycanSon GoKu
Lycan
Night Stalker
Night StalkerELeVeN
26% · 11 games59% · 42 games
Earth SpiritSeptember
Earth Spirit
Shadow Demon
Shadow DemonPyw
60% · 20 games55% · 38 games
OracleXCJ
Oracle
Tusk
TuskDy
45% · 52 games
Game 3prediction correct22:12
Vici Gaming 50%Sparking Arrow Gaming 50%
The model gave 50% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 37:25.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladepoyoyo
47% · 29 games36% · 25 games
Outworld DestroyerDstones
Outworld Destroyer
Chaos Knight
Chaos KnightELeVeN
43% · 3 games51% · 41 game
TidehunterSon GoKu
Tidehunter
Puck
PuckOri
56% · 97 games52% · 70 games
RubickSeptember
Rubick
Shadow Shaman
Shadow ShamanPyw
48% · 55 games49% · 59 games
OracleXCJ
Oracle
Abaddon
AbaddonDy
63% · 11 games
Model check result
Model favoriteVici Gaming · 52%
Series resultVici Gaming 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3