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Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Китай. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Vici Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
87%13%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Cloudloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Vici Gaming

Morphling
Morphlingsignature
poyoyo · 11 games
73%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
Frisk · 10 games
40%
Primal Beast
Primal Beastsignature
niu · 9 games
67%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Frisk · 8 games
88%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Yang · 8 games
88%
Marci
Marcisignature
Frisk · 7 games
86%
Mars
Marssignature
niu · 7 games
71%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Yang · 7 games
57%

Team Cloud

Dazzle
Dazzle
QYQX · 2 games
50%
Tidehunter
Tidehunteroften banned
Irving · 2 games
50%
Tusk
Tuskoften banned
mercy · 2 games
50%
Alchemist
Alchemistoften banned
白也 · 1 game
0%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetoften banned
Dust · 1 game
0%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidoften banned
白也 · 1 game
100%
Lina
Linaoften banned
白也 · 1 game
0%
Marci
Marcioften banned
QYQX · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
Rubick
443 picks · 289 bans
53%
Tusk
Tusk
443 picks · 447 bans
54%
Tiny
Tiny
431 picks · 398 bans
50%
Mirana
Mirana
322 picks · 322 bans
53%
Treant Protector
Treant Protector
289 picks · 345 bans
56%
Snapfire
Snapfire
264 picks · 136 bans
48%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
241 picks · 612 bans
50%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
232 picks · 160 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 50%
Hero pool strength58% Vici Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total87% Vici Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct26:7
Vici Gaming 72%Team Cloud 28%
The model gave 72% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 24:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangerpoyoyo
40% · 114 games53% · 118 games
Shadow FiendButterflyEffect
Shadow Fiend
Death Prophet
Death ProphetSetsu
47% · 296 games53% · 225 games
Ember Spirit1ce limit
Ember Spirit
Magnus
Magnusniu
44% · 69 games50% · 312 games
Snapfiremercy
Snapfire
Rubick
Rubickfy
50% · 398 games51% · 289 games
Tuskcsj
Tusk
Clockwerk
ClockwerkYang
53% · 306 games58% · 239 games
Treant ProtectorStariff
Treant Protector
Game 2prediction correct27:7
Vici Gaming 73%Team Cloud 27%
The model gave 73% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 27:40.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember Spirit
Ember SpiritSetsu
44% · 168 games40% · 104 games
ZeusButterflyEffect
Zeus
Spectre
Spectrepoyoyo
47% · 26 gameslittle data
Meepo1ce limit
Meepo
Beastmaster
Beastmasterniu
58% · 143 games53% · 159 games
Marcicsj
Marci
Phoenix
Phoenixfy
44% · 85 games55% · 154 games
Treant ProtectorStariff
Treant Protector
Jakiro
JakiroYang
57% · 51 game52% · 56 games
Shadow Demonmercy
Shadow Demon
Model check result
Model favoriteVici Gaming · 87%
Series resultVici Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2