Dota Pro Circuit 2023: Season 1. Китай. Второй дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Vici Gamingwin 2:0series probability
86%14%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Disillusionloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Vici Gaming
Morphlingsignature
poyoyo · 11 games
Earthshaker
Frisk · 10 games
Primal Beastsignature
niu · 9 games
Tusksignature
Frisk · 9 games
Marcisignature
Frisk · 8 games
Undyingsignature
Yang · 8 games
Marssignature
niu · 7 games
Snapfire
Yang · 7 games
Team Disillusion
Dawnbreakeroften banned
天命 · 2 games
Death Prophetoften banned
BEYOND · 2 games
Doomoften banned
Killa · 2 games
Hoodwink
Sj · 2 games
Marcioften banned
BEYOND · 2 games
Rubick
Eren · 2 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
zc · 2 games
Bane
Sj · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Rubick
540 picks · 358 bans
Tusk
504 picks · 493 bans
Tiny
491 picks · 425 bans
Treant Protector
371 picks · 446 bans
Mirana
355 picks · 349 bans
Snapfire
323 picks · 165 bans
Clockwerk
289 picks · 184 bans
Ember Spirit
287 picks · 710 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 50%
Hero pool strength58% Vici Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total86% Vici Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct44:17
Vici Gaming 72%Team Disillusion 28%
The model gave 72% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 34:54.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Naga Sirenpoyoyo
BroodmotherKilla
PuckSetsu
SnapfireEren
Marsniu
Rubickfy
Crystal MaidenYang
Game 2prediction correct42:13
Vici Gaming 71%Team Disillusion 29%
The model gave 71% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 19:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Linapoyoyo
TuskKilla
PangolierSetsu
SnapfireEren
Broodmotherniu
ClockwerkYang
Hoodwinkfy
Model check result
Model favoriteVici Gaming · 86%
Series resultVici Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2