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PGL Wallachia Season 7 · BO3
result vs prediction
Vici Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
25%75%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team Falconsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Vici Gaming

Mars
Marssignature
Faith_bian · 13 games
77%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
y` · 12 games
25%
Marci
Marcisignature
shiro · 10 games
70%
Puck
Pucksignature
Xm · 10 games
70%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Xm · 10 games
60%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
pLAnet · 9 games
67%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
shiro · 9 games
56%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
lou · 9 games
44%

Team Falcons

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Malr1ne · 32 games
66%
Chen
Chensignature
Sneyking · 30 games
63%
Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Sneyking · 30 games
63%
Mars
Marsoften banned
ATF · 30 games
57%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Cr1t- · 30 games
70%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 28 games
68%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 24 games
71%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 21 game
62%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
606 picks · 921 bans
50%
Tiny
Tiny
485 picks · 522 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
482 picks · 427 bans
47%
Warlock
Warlock
445 picks · 301 bans
48%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
417 picks · 1073 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
401 picks · 583 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
396 picks · 586 bans
56%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
394 picks · 674 bans
60%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 53%
Hero pool strength54% Team Falcons
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total75% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct16:20
Vici Gaming 35%Team Falcons 65%
The model gave 65% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 36:30.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinshiro
48% · 258 games53% · 337 games
BristlebackATF
Bristleback
Storm Spirit
Storm SpiritXm
44% · 460 games57% · 508 games
Ember SpiritLorenof
Ember Spirit
Underlord
UnderlordFaith_bian
48% · 207 games50% · 301 game
UrsaSkiter
Ursa
Dark Willow
Dark WillowpLAnet
47% · 278 games56% · 258 games
ChenSneyking
Chen
Jakiro
Jakiroy`
46% · 619 games52% · 418 games
Shadow ShamanCr1t-
Shadow Shaman
Game 2prediction missed43:18
Vici Gaming 35%Team Falcons 65%
The model gave 65% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 40:53.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
Windrangershiro
50% · 303 games56% · 275 games
Shadow FiendSkiter
Shadow Fiend
Tiny
TinyXm
47% · 544 games54% · 519 games
Storm SpiritLorenof
Storm Spirit
Mars
MarsFaith_bian
49% · 369 games48% · 396 games
PangolierATF
Pangolier
Grimstroke
GrimstrokepLAnet
49% · 48 games49% · 299 games
MuertaCr1t-
Muerta
Jakiro
Jakiroy`
44% · 644 games55% · 419 games
Shadow ShamanSneyking
Shadow Shaman
Game 3prediction missed29:9
Vici Gaming 34%Team Falcons 66%
The model gave 66% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 32:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeshiro
53% · 265 games44% · 15 games
NecrophosSkiter
Necrophos
Tiny
TinyXm
44% · 419 games50% · 515 games
Storm SpiritLorenof
Storm Spirit
Timbersaw
TimbersawFaith_bian
46% · 212 games50% · 342 games
BristlebackATF
Bristleback
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the LightpLAnet
50% · 114 games57% · 241 game
ChenSneyking
Chen
Jakiro
Jakiroy`
46% · 561 game54% · 458 games
Shadow ShamanCr1t-
Shadow Shaman
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 75%
Series resultVici Gaming 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3