?
arrow_backBack to match
DreamLeague Season 29 · BO3
result vs prediction
Vici Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
24%76%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Falconswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Vici Gaming

Windranger
Windrangeroften banned
shiro · 19 games
47%
Mars
Marssignature
Faith_bian · 17 games
65%
Tiny
Tiny
Xm · 17 games
59%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Xm · 16 games
44%
Jakiro
Jakiro
y` · 15 games
40%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Xm · 13 games
38%
Rubick
Rubick
XinQ · 13 games
54%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
pLAnet · 12 games
67%

Team Falcons

Jakiro
Jakirosignature
Sneyking · 27 games
63%
Ringmaster
Ringmastersignature
Cr1t- · 26 games
69%
Hoodwink
Hoodwinksignature
Cr1t- · 23 games
61%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
ATF · 22 games
59%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Skiter · 22 games
64%
Mars
Marsoften banned
ATF · 22 games
55%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Malr1ne · 22 games
73%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Cr1t- · 22 games
73%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
521 picks · 314 bans
56%
Phoenix
Phoenix
491 picks · 582 bans
52%
Tiny
Tiny
439 picks · 353 bans
50%
Jakiro
Jakiro
399 picks · 299 bans
48%
Rubick
Rubick
384 picks · 209 bans
48%
Tusk
Tusk
349 picks · 311 bans
55%
Puck
Puck
338 picks · 858 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
334 picks · 850 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 50%
Hero pool strength55% Team Falcons
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total76% Team Falcons
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct20:28
Vici Gaming 35%Team Falcons 65%
The model gave 65% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 48:47.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow Rangershiro
33% · 16 games60% · 29 games
Lone DruidSkiter
Lone Druid
Viper
ViperXm
51% · 60 games53% · 139 games
TimbersawATF
Timbersaw
Beastmaster
BeastmasterFaith_bian
48% · 164 games55% · 152 games
Monkey KingMalr1ne
Monkey King
Phoenix
Phoenixy`
46% · 155 games55% · 82 games
VenomancerSneyking
Venomancer
Clockwerk
ClockwerkXinQ
43% · 94 games49% · 87 games
LionCr1t-
Lion
Game 2prediction correct25:39
Vici Gaming 34%Team Falcons 66%
The model gave 66% on Team Falcons — the game was taken by Team Falcons in 55:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Sniper
SniperXm
44% · 39 games57% · 123 games
DoomATF
Doom
Kez
Kezshiro
51% · 141 game38% · 11 games
ZeusMalr1ne
Zeus
Mars
MarsFaith_bian
45% · 285 games49% · 403 games
TinySkiter
Tiny
Phoenix
Phoenixy`
49% · 267 games56% · 372 games
HoodwinkCr1t-
Hoodwink
Windranger
WindrangerXinQ
50% · 205 games46% · 28 games
LichSneyking
Lich
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Falcons · 76%
Series resultTeam Falcons 0:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2