Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Китай 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Vici Gamingwin 2:0series probability
52%48%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team MagMaloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Vici Gaming
Oracle
Dy · 2 games
Batrideroften banned
ELeVeN · 1 game
Death Prophetoften banned
Ori · 1 game
Drow Rangeroften banned
poyoyo · 1 game
Earthshakeroften banned
Pyw · 1 game
Marsoften banned
ELeVeN · 1 game
Templar Assassinoften banned
Ori · 1 game
Troll Warlordoften banned
poyoyo · 1 game
Team MagMa
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
115 picks · 256 bans
Mars
108 picks · 221 bans
Earth Spirit
99 picks · 83 bans
Void Spirit
95 picks · 148 bans
Phoenix
90 picks · 93 bans
Rubick
75 picks · 36 bans
Keeper of the Light
70 picks · 135 bans
Nyx Assassin
70 picks · 256 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 57%
Hero pool strength58% Vici Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total52% Vici Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:15
Vici Gaming 52%Team MagMa 48%
The model gave 52% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 34:24.
Game 2prediction correct26:22
Vici Gaming 52%Team MagMa 48%
The model gave 52% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 37:47.
Model check result
Model favoriteVici Gaming · 52%
Series resultVici Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2