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Huya Winter Invitational 2021 · BO3
result vs prediction
Vici Gamingwin 2:1
series probability
42%58%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Team SMGloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Vici Gaming

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
ELeVeN · 17 games
53%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Dy · 15 games
73%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
ELeVeN · 15 games
67%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Dy · 13 games
54%
Weaver
Weaversignature
Pyw · 13 games
62%
Lion
Lion
Pyw · 12 games
50%
Elder Titan
Elder Titansignature
Dy · 11 games
64%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
poyoyo · 11 games
55%

Team SMG

Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
AhFu · 23 games
70%
Abaddon
Abaddon
Roddgeee · 22 games
59%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseekersignature
Roddgeee · 20 games
70%
Brewmaster
Brewmastersignature
kpii · 15 games
80%
Lion
Lionsignature
Roddgeee · 15 games
60%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Roddgeee · 15 games
80%
Lina
Linasignature
Moon · 14 games
71%
Luna
Lunaoften banned
MidOne · 14 games
50%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
371 picks · 539 bans
48%
Bane
Bane
349 picks · 257 bans
59%
Snapfire
Snapfire
338 picks · 204 bans
45%
Weaver
Weaver
321 picks · 724 bans
57%
Io
Io
242 picks · 572 bans
50%
Disruptor
Disruptor
241 picks · 154 bans
51%
Monkey King
Monkey King
241 picks · 732 bans
55%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
236 picks · 372 bans
48%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 53%
Hero pool strength55% Team SMG
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total58% Team SMG
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed49:28
Vici Gaming 45%Team SMG 55%
The model gave 55% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 50:33.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Doom
DoomIrving
45% · 86 games58% · 164 games
Ember SpiritMoon
Ember Spirit
Death Prophet
Death ProphetXm
49% · 100 games51% · 110 games
Phantom AssassinMidOne
Phantom Assassin
Riki
Rikipoyoyo
50% · 36 games50% · 131 game
Elder TitanAhFu
Elder Titan
Tusk
TuskYds
42% · 105 games57% · 88 games
BaneRoddgeee
Bane
Grimstroke
GrimstrokeVictoria
47% · 166 games
Game 2prediction correct42:33
Vici Gaming 44%Team SMG 56%
The model gave 56% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Team SMG in 47:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingpoyoyo
45% · 140 games50% · 70 games
Phantom LancerMidOne
Phantom Lancer
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainXm
46% · 118 games54% · 221 game
Ember SpiritMoon
Ember Spirit
Tidehunter
TidehunterIrving
42% · 162 games57% · 168 games
Nyx AssassinAhFu
Nyx Assassin
Weaver
WeaverYds
48% · 171 game58% · 255 games
BaneRoddgeee
Bane
Disruptor
DisruptorVictoria
43% · 123 games
Game 3prediction missed43:12
Vici Gaming 46%Team SMG 54%
The model gave 54% on Team SMG — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 30:59.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Wraith King
Wraith Kingpoyoyo
50% · 185 games50% · 121 game
LunaMidOne
Luna
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainXm
46% · 124 games52% · 160 games
Ember SpiritMoon
Ember Spirit
Lycan
LycanIrving
50% · 63 games40% · 141 game
GrimstrokeAhFu
Grimstroke
Earthshaker
EarthshakerYds
55% · 67 games55% · 146 games
Nyx AssassinRoddgeee
Nyx Assassin
Disruptor
DisruptorVictoria
51% · 129 games
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam SMG · 58%
Series resultVici Gaming 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3