?
arrow_backBack to match
The International 10 (2021) · BO2
result vs prediction
Vici Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
39%61%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Team Spiritloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Vici Gaming

Lion
Lion
Pyw · 23 games
57%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
ELeVeN · 22 games
68%
Spectre
Spectresignature
poyoyo · 22 games
77%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
ELeVeN · 22 games
73%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
Dy · 21 game
48%
Doom
Doomsignature
ELeVeN · 19 games
68%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Ori · 17 games
71%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionsignature
Dy · 16 games
69%

Team Spirit

Mirana
Miranasignature
Mira · 36 games
75%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Collapse · 30 games
53%
Tiny
Tinysignature
Mira · 23 games
70%
Puck
Pucksignature
TORONTOTOKYO · 22 games
73%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Miposhka · 21 game
62%
Lion
Lionsignature
Mira · 21 game
67%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Mira · 20 games
75%
Tidehunter
Tidehuntersignature
Collapse · 19 games
68%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
300 picks · 177 bans
52%
Mars
Mars
287 picks · 400 bans
48%
Lina
Lina
281 picks · 545 bans
56%
Pangolier
Pangolier
259 picks · 375 bans
52%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
258 picks · 90 bans
46%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
245 picks · 258 bans
59%
Luna
Luna
226 picks · 324 bans
50%
Tidehunter
Tidehunter
226 picks · 382 bans
50%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)52% vs 63%
Hero pool strength51% Team Spirit
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total61% Team Spirit
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed31:22
Vici Gaming 42%Team Spirit 58%
The model gave 58% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 44:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Morphling
Morphlingpoyoyo
42% · 111 games45% · 106 games
TinyTORONTOTOKYO
Tiny
Shadow Fiend
Shadow FiendOri
56% · 30 games56% · 98 games
Ember SpiritYatoro
Ember Spirit
Earthshaker
EarthshakerELeVeN
55% · 53 games60% · 51 game
MagnusCollapse
Magnus
Hoodwink
HoodwinkPyw
40% · 100 games54% · 114 games
SnapfireMira
Snapfire
Elder Titan
Elder TitanDy
50% · 129 games53% · 54 games
DisruptorMiposhka
Disruptor
Game 2prediction missed26:12
Vici Gaming 46%Team Spirit 54%
The model gave 54% on Team Spirit — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 32:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Templar Assassin
Templar AssassinOri
51% · 79 games56% · 60 games
Faceless VoidYatoro
Faceless Void
Spectre
Spectrepoyoyo
46% · 57 games53% · 143 games
LinaTORONTOTOKYO
Lina
Tidehunter
TidehunterELeVeN
48% · 129 games57% · 49 games
EarthshakerCollapse
Earthshaker
Weaver
WeaverPyw
48% · 73 games46% · 100 games
RubickMira
Rubick
Disruptor
DisruptorDy
52% · 55 games42% · 41 game
Ogre MagiMiposhka
Ogre Magi
Model check result
Model favoriteTeam Spirit · 61%
Series resultVici Gaming 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2