?
arrow_backBack to match
The International 2022: Last Chance · BO3
result vs prediction
Vici Gamingwin 2:0
series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Wildcard Gamingloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Vici Gaming

Marci
Marcisignature
Frisk · 9 games
67%
Puck
Pucksignature
Xm · 9 games
67%
Tiny
Tiny
Yds · 9 games
56%
Earthshaker
Earthshaker
Frisk · 8 games
38%
Snapfire
Snapfire
Yang · 8 games
50%
Mars
Marssignature
niu · 7 games
71%
Morphling
Morphlingsignature
poyoyo · 7 games
86%
Viper
Viperoften banned
Xm · 7 games
57%

Wildcard Gaming

Snapfire
Snapfire
The Warden · 20 games
25%
Tiny
Tinysignature
The Warden · 15 games
67%
Puck
Puckoften banned
iAnnihilate · 13 games
38%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreakeroften banned
iAnnihilate · 12 games
42%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
iAnnihilate · 12 games
33%
Chaos Knight
Chaos Knightsignature
Ark · 11 games
64%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
The Warden · 11 games
64%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Sunlight · 10 games
70%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
Tiny
533 picks · 418 bans
52%
Marci
Marci
447 picks · 677 bans
54%
Dawnbreaker
Dawnbreaker
316 picks · 434 bans
45%
Puck
Puck
314 picks · 737 bans
55%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
297 picks · 486 bans
49%
Winter Wyvern
Winter Wyvern
281 picks · 354 bans
54%
Batrider
Batrider
255 picks · 845 bans
51%
Dazzle
Dazzle
247 picks · 156 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)47% vs 36%
Hero pool strength56% Vici Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total63% Vici Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct34:24
Vici Gaming 63%Wildcard Gaming 37%
The model gave 63% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 43:06.
Game 2prediction correct34:5
Vici Gaming 63%Wildcard Gaming 37%
The model gave 63% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Vici Gaming in 24:23.
Model check result
Model favoriteVici Gaming · 63%
Series resultVici Gaming 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2