Dota Pro Circuit 2021/2022: Season 3 — Китай · BO3
result vs prediction
Vici Gamingloss 0:2series probability
53%47%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Xtreme Gamingwin 2:0The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Vici Gaming
Grimstroke
Victoria · 18 games
Death Prophetoften banned
Irving · 12 games
Tidehunteroften banned
Irving · 11 games
Hoodwink
Yds · 10 games
Pangolieroften banned
Yds · 10 games
Queen of Painoften banned
Xm · 10 games
Templar Assassinsignature
Xm · 10 games
Weaveroften banned
Yds · 10 games
Xtreme Gaming
Marssignature
Srf · 14 games
Queen of Painsignature
Paparazi · 13 games
Templar Assassinsignature
lou · 13 games
Wraith Kingsignature
lou · 13 games
Banesignature
Dy · 12 games
Death Prophetsignature
Paparazi · 12 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
Pyw · 12 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Paparazi · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
477 picks · 659 bans
Tiny
471 picks · 448 bans
Bane
453 picks · 276 bans
Sand King
414 picks · 566 bans
Dragon Knight
413 picks · 491 bans
Storm Spirit
401 picks · 653 bans
Pangolier
368 picks · 574 bans
Grimstroke
347 picks · 296 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)50% vs 60%
Hero pool strength62% Xtreme Gaming
Head-to-head1 – 2
Model total53% Vici Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct9:30
Vici Gaming 50%Xtreme Gaming 50%
The model gave 50% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 29:04.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Juggernautpoyoyo
Monkey Kinglou
DoomYang
VisageELeVeN
Void SpiritXm
PuckPaparazi
GrimstrokeYds
SnapfireDy
Winter WyvernVictoria
TinyPyw
Game 2prediction correct11:22
Vici Gaming 48%Xtreme Gaming 52%
The model gave 52% on Xtreme Gaming — the game was taken by Xtreme Gaming in 32:51.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Terrorbladepoyoyo
Templar Assassinlou
TinyXm
PuckPaparazi
MarsYang
VisageELeVeN
Monkey KingYds
DoomPyw
SnapfireVictoria
Elder TitanDy
Model check result
Model favoriteVici Gaming · 53%
Series resultXtreme Gaming 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2