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ESL Challenger China · BO3
result vs prediction
Vici Gamingloss 0:2
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Yakult Brotherswin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Vici Gaming

Mars
Marssignature
Faith_bian · 11 games
82%
Sand King
Sand Kingsignature
Xm · 10 games
60%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
Dy · 9 games
33%
Ursa
Ursaoften banned
lou · 9 games
44%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Dy · 8 games
63%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopteroften banned
shiro · 8 games
50%
Puck
Pucksignature
Xm · 8 games
75%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Xm · 8 games
50%

Yakult Brothers

Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Emo · 29 games
52%
Disruptor
Disruptorsignature
Poloson · 25 games
72%
Puck
Puckoften banned
Emo · 25 games
52%
Jakiro
Jakirooften banned
天命 · 21 game
33%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
flyfly · 20 games
40%
Mars
Marsoften banned
zeal · 19 games
37%
Leshrac
Leshrac
Moon · 18 games
56%
Bane
Bane
BoBoKa · 17 games
53%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
585 picks · 925 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
544 picks · 419 bans
47%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
492 picks · 659 bans
48%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
489 picks · 639 bans
56%
Shadow Demon
Shadow Demon
425 picks · 931 bans
54%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
389 picks · 644 bans
58%
Mars
Mars
381 picks · 525 bans
48%
Warlock
Warlock
370 picks · 229 bans
45%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 34%
Hero pool strength54% Vici Gaming
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total65% Vici Gaming
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed29:39
Vici Gaming 58%Yakult Brothers 42%
The model gave 58% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 1:01:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Windranger
Windrangershiro
47% · 193 games54% · 240 games
Ursaflyfly
Ursa
Timbersaw
TimbersawFaith_bian
54% · 238 games53% · 390 games
TinyMoon
Tiny
Leshrac
LeshracXm
45% · 156 games45% · 141 game
UnderlordYang
Underlord
Jakiro
Jakiroy`
46% · 402 games54% · 261 game
BatriderBoBoKa
Batrider
Lion
LionpLAnet
50% · 81 game54% · 38 games
Largo天命
Largo
Game 2prediction missed13:30
Vici Gaming 59%Yakult Brothers 41%
The model gave 59% on Vici Gaming — the game was taken by Yakult Brothers in 35:43.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Queen of Pain
Queen of PainXm
45% · 257 games57% · 159 games
Morphlingflyfly
Morphling
Shadow Fiend
Shadow Fiendshiro
50% · 159 games49% · 75 games
ViperMoon
Viper
Mars
MarsFaith_bian
50% · 265 games45% · 198 games
TidehunterYang
Tidehunter
Tiny
TinypLAnet
44% · 345 games52% · 318 games
BatriderBoBoKa
Batrider
Treant Protector
Treant Protectory`
59% · 46 games53% · 322 games
Disruptor天命
Disruptor
Model check result
Model favoriteVici Gaming · 65%
Series resultYakult Brothers 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2