Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Европа 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
ViKin.ggloss 1:2series probability
45%55%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Alliancewin 2:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
ViKin.gg
Earthshakersignature
Aramis · 7 games
Grimstrokesignature
Seleri · 6 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Tobi · 5 games
Oracleoften banned
Seleri · 5 games
Earth Spirit
Aramis · 4 games
Puckoften banned
BOOM · 4 games
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Aramis · 3 games
Death Prophetoften banned
KheZu · 3 games
Alliance
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
256 picks · 531 bans
Void Spirit
234 picks · 291 bans
Mars
213 picks · 384 bans
Earth Spirit
199 picks · 154 bans
Keeper of the Light
171 picks · 306 bans
Phoenix
168 picks · 196 bans
Nyx Assassin
165 picks · 535 bans
Wraith King
162 picks · 212 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 64%
Hero pool strength56% ViKin.gg
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Alliance
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed11:28
ViKin.gg 45%Alliance 55%
The model gave 55% on Alliance — the game was taken by ViKin.gg in 38:57.
Game 2prediction correct29:33
ViKin.gg 45%Alliance 55%
The model gave 55% on Alliance — the game was taken by Alliance in 52:30.
Game 3prediction correct25:4
ViKin.gg 45%Alliance 55%
The model gave 55% on Alliance — the game was taken by Alliance in 20:27.
Model check result
Model favoriteAlliance · 55%
Series resultAlliance 1:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3