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Positive Fire Games · BO5
result vs prediction
ViKin.ggwin 3:2
series probability
70%30%
probability at match start · final 3:2
Chicken Fightersloss 2:3
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

ViKin.gg

Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 17 games
65%
Puck
Pucksignature
BOOM · 13 games
62%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Aramis · 12 games
42%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Seleri · 12 games
75%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
BOOM · 11 games
82%
Lion
Lionsignature
Aramis · 10 games
70%
Tusk
Tusksignature
Aramis · 10 games
70%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
BOOM · 10 games
60%

Chicken Fighters

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
430 picks · 988 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
417 picks · 575 bans
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
365 picks · 708 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
349 picks · 590 bans
54%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
311 picks · 306 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
305 picks · 203 bans
52%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
304 picks · 282 bans
45%
Phoenix
Phoenix
255 picks · 413 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)73% vs 75%
Hero pool strength58% ViKin.gg
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total70% ViKin.gg
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct19:8
ViKin.gg 70%Chicken Fighters 30%
The model gave 70% on ViKin.gg — the game was taken by ViKin.gg in 33:01.
Game 2prediction missed30:32
ViKin.gg 70%Chicken Fighters 30%
The model gave 70% on ViKin.gg — the game was taken by Chicken Fighters in 41:11.
Game 3prediction correct30:25
ViKin.gg 70%Chicken Fighters 30%
The model gave 70% on ViKin.gg — the game was taken by ViKin.gg in 43:20.
Game 4prediction missed26:50
ViKin.gg 70%Chicken Fighters 30%
The model gave 70% on ViKin.gg — the game was taken by Chicken Fighters in 1:25:51.
Game 5prediction correct33:13
ViKin.gg 70%Chicken Fighters 30%
The model gave 70% on ViKin.gg — the game was taken by ViKin.gg in 1:07:35.
Model check result
Model favoriteViKin.gg · 70%
Series resultViKin.gg 3:2
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game3 of 5