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EPIC League Season 3. Групповой этап · BO3
result vs prediction
ViKin.ggwin 2:0
series probability
28%72%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Hellbear Smashersloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

ViKin.gg

Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Aramis · 9 games
78%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 9 games
78%
Puck
Puckoften banned
BOOM · 9 games
56%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Seleri · 8 games
63%
Lion
Lionsignature
Aramis · 8 games
63%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
BOOM · 8 games
63%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
KheZu · 7 games
57%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Aramis · 7 games
14%

Hellbear Smashers

Puck
Pucksignature
Stormstormer · 13 games
69%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightsignature
Stormstormer · 12 games
75%
Invoker
Invokersignature
Stormstormer · 12 games
83%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingsignature
Ace · 12 games
75%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Gilgir · 11 games
82%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
MISERY · 10 games
90%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Ace · 10 games
70%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
Ace · 9 games
78%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
361 picks · 753 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
335 picks · 450 bans
55%
Mars
Mars
289 picks · 508 bans
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
263 picks · 222 bans
50%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
249 picks · 390 bans
56%
Rubick
Rubick
237 picks · 138 bans
51%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
225 picks · 474 bans
56%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
220 picks · 671 bans
60%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 77%
Hero pool strength59% Hellbear Smashers
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total72% Hellbear Smashers
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed38:27
ViKin.gg 28%Hellbear Smashers 72%
The model gave 72% on Hellbear Smashers — the game was taken by ViKin.gg in 50:37.
Game 2prediction missed27:47
ViKin.gg 28%Hellbear Smashers 72%
The model gave 72% on Hellbear Smashers — the game was taken by ViKin.gg in 47:01.
Model check result
Model favoriteHellbear Smashers · 72%
Series resultViKin.gg 2:0
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game0 of 2