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EPIC League Season 3 Division 1 · BO3
result vs prediction
ViKin.ggwin 2:1
series probability
63%37%
probability at match start · final 2:1
HellRaisersloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

ViKin.gg

Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 13 games
69%
Puck
Puckoften banned
BOOM · 10 games
50%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Aramis · 9 games
22%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Aramis · 9 games
78%
Lion
Lionsignature
Aramis · 9 games
67%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
BOOM · 9 games
56%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
KheZu · 8 games
50%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
BOOM · 8 games
75%

HellRaisers

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
381 picks · 833 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
358 picks · 504 bans
54%
Mars
Mars
309 picks · 548 bans
51%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
276 picks · 469 bans
56%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
272 picks · 232 bans
50%
Rubick
Rubick
251 picks · 154 bans
51%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
238 picks · 512 bans
54%
Wraith King
Wraith King
235 picks · 366 bans
56%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 59%
Hero pool strength56% ViKin.gg
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total63% ViKin.gg
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct31:17
ViKin.gg 63%HellRaisers 37%
The model gave 63% on ViKin.gg — the game was taken by ViKin.gg in 37:30.
Game 2prediction missed42:20
ViKin.gg 63%HellRaisers 37%
The model gave 63% on ViKin.gg — the game was taken by HellRaisers in 48:38.
Game 3prediction correct45:10
ViKin.gg 63%HellRaisers 37%
The model gave 63% on ViKin.gg — the game was taken by ViKin.gg in 37:34.
Model check result
Model favoriteViKin.gg · 63%
Series resultViKin.gg 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3