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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Европа 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
ViKin.ggwin 2:1
series probability
95%5%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Hippomaniacsloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

ViKin.gg

Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 16 games
69%
Puck
Pucksignature
BOOM · 13 games
62%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
Seleri · 12 games
75%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
Aramis · 11 games
36%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritsignature
BOOM · 11 games
82%
Lion
Lionsignature
Aramis · 10 games
70%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritsignature
BOOM · 10 games
60%
Earthshaker
Earthshakersignature
Aramis · 9 games
78%

Hippomaniacs

Kunkka
Kunkkaoften banned
Supream^ · 1 game
0%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritoften banned
Supream^ · 1 game
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
430 picks · 979 bans
51%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
416 picks · 573 bans
53%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
365 picks · 707 bans
56%
Mars
Mars
347 picks · 587 bans
54%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
310 picks · 303 bans
50%
Tusk
Tusk
303 picks · 200 bans
52%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
301 picks · 276 bans
45%
Phoenix
Phoenix
255 picks · 413 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)72% vs 25%
Hero pool strength62% ViKin.gg
Head-to-head2 – 0
Model total95% ViKin.gg
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct37:14
ViKin.gg 95%Hippomaniacs 5%
The model gave 95% on ViKin.gg — the game was taken by ViKin.gg in 27:36.
Game 2prediction missed19:27
ViKin.gg 95%Hippomaniacs 5%
The model gave 95% on ViKin.gg — the game was taken by Hippomaniacs in 42:57.
Game 3prediction correct30:7
ViKin.gg 95%Hippomaniacs 5%
The model gave 95% on ViKin.gg — the game was taken by ViKin.gg in 22:26.
Model check result
Model favoriteViKin.gg · 95%
Series resultViKin.gg 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3