Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — Европа 2-й дивизион · BO3
result vs predictionseries probability
83%17%
probability at match start · final 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
ViKin.gg
Enchantresssignature
Seleri · 16 games
Puckoften banned
BOOM · 12 games
Grimstrokesignature
Seleri · 11 games
Ember Spiritsignature
BOOM · 10 games
Lionsignature
Aramis · 10 games
Void Spiritsignature
BOOM · 10 games
Earth Spirit
Aramis · 9 games
Earthshakersignature
Aramis · 9 games
No Bounty Hunter
Rubick
ntakii · 16 games
Earth Spiritsignature
dEsire · 15 games
Puckoften banned
ntakii · 14 games
Grimstrokesignature
Flash · 12 games
Death Prophetsignature
BliNcc · 9 games
Nyx Assassinsignature
Flash · 9 games
Bloodseekersignature
BliNcc · 7 games
Ember Spiritsignature
ntakii · 7 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
454 picks · 985 bans
Void Spirit
431 picks · 590 bans
Death Prophet
371 picks · 697 bans
Mars
351 picks · 610 bans
Earth Spirit
326 picks · 303 bans
Grimstroke
288 picks · 254 bans
Tusk
288 picks · 182 bans
Phoenix
282 picks · 395 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)67% vs 48%
Hero pool strength54% ViKin.gg
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total83% ViKin.gg
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct52:17
ViKin.gg 69%No Bounty Hunter 31%
The model gave 69% on ViKin.gg — the game was taken by ViKin.gg in 43:15.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
JuggernautShad
GyrocopterkAAN
Ember SpiritBOOM
Puckntakii
Centaur WarrunnerKheZu
UnderlordBliNcc
TinyAramis
ClockwerkNARMAN
SnapfireSeleri
AbaddonFlash
Game 2prediction correct44:24
ViKin.gg 69%No Bounty Hunter 31%
The model gave 69% on ViKin.gg — the game was taken by ViKin.gg in 37:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LifestealerShad
GyrocopterkAAN
InvokerBOOM
Viperntakii
TidehunterKheZu
RubickNARMAN
Earth SpiritAramis
Centaur WarrunnerBliNcc
DisruptorSeleri
IoFlash
Model check result
Model favoriteViKin.gg · 83%
Series resultViKin.gg 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2