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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 1 — Европа 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
ViKin.ggloss 0:2
series probability
51%49%
probability at match start · final 0:2
Team Secretwin 2:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

ViKin.gg

Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Tobi · 3 games
67%
Bounty Hunter
Bounty Hunteroften banned
Aramis · 3 games
67%
Oracle
Oracle
Seleri · 3 games
67%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
Seleri · 2 games
50%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
BOOM · 2 games
100%
Io
Iooften banned
Seleri · 2 games
50%
Lycan
Lycanoften banned
Tobi · 2 games
50%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
Shad · 2 games
0%

Team Secret

Outworld Destroyer
Outworld Destroyeroften banned
Nisha · 2 games
50%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Puppey · 1 game
0%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
zai · 1 game
100%
Bloodseeker
Bloodseeker
MATUMBAMAN · 1 game
0%
Chen
Chen
Puppey · 1 game
100%
Invoker
Invokeroften banned
Nisha · 1 game
100%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Lightoften banned
Puppey · 1 game
100%
Monkey King
Monkey Kingoften banned
MATUMBAMAN · 1 game
100%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Mars
Mars
144 picks · 265 bans
47%
Puck
Puck
141 picks · 334 bans
54%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
129 picks · 109 bans
52%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
123 picks · 182 bans
58%
Phoenix
Phoenix
113 picks · 124 bans
56%
Keeper of the Light
Keeper of the Light
96 picks · 173 bans
57%
Nyx Assassin
Nyx Assassin
94 picks · 333 bans
61%
Monkey King
Monkey King
92 picks · 214 bans
55%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)57% vs 60%
Hero pool strength53% Team Secret
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total51% ViKin.gg
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct11:26
ViKin.gg 49%Team Secret 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 39:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Troll Warlord
Troll WarlordShad
48% · 17 games25% · 4 games
Phantom LancerMATUMBAMAN
Phantom Lancer
Batrider
BatriderBOOM
45% · 23 games47% · 20 games
Storm SpiritNisha
Storm Spirit
Underlord
UnderlordTobi
40% · 6 games54% · 15 games
Death Prophetzai
Death Prophet
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritAramis
49% · 42 games65% · 12 games
EarthshakerYapzOr
Earthshaker
Oracle
OracleSeleri
44% · 24 games56% · 61 game
PuckPuppey
Puck
Game 2prediction correct5:28
ViKin.gg 49%Team Secret 51%
The model gave 51% on Team Secret — the game was taken by Team Secret in 20:57.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bloodseeker
BloodseekerShad
35% · 19 games62% · 8 games
BristlebackMATUMBAMAN
Bristleback
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightBOOM
55% · 12 games55% · 28 games
Void SpiritNisha
Void Spirit
Enigma
EnigmaTobi
41% · 9 games63% · 11 games
Pangolierzai
Pangolier
Earth Spirit
Earth SpiritAramis
45% · 48 games67% · 5 games
RubickYapzOr
Rubick
Lion
LionSeleri
60% · 6 games51% · 42 games
PuckPuppey
Puck
Model check result
Model favoriteViKin.gg · 51%
Series resultTeam Secret 0:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game2 of 2