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DreamLeague Season 24. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 2:1
series probability
25%75%
probability at match start · final 2:1
1w Teamloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Tiny
Tinysignature
Kiritych · 14 games
79%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Kiritych · 13 games
31%
Phoenix
Phoenixoften banned
Fng · 11 games
55%
Rubick
Rubick
Antares · 11 games
45%
Underlord
Underlordsignature
Noticed · 10 games
60%
Batrider
Batrideroften banned
Antares · 9 games
44%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Noticed · 9 games
44%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Fng · 9 games
78%

1w Team

Windranger
Windrangersignature
Munkushi~ · 33 games
64%
Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Chira JUNIOR · 29 games
62%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
RESPECT · 26 games
69%
Clockwerk
Clockwerksignature
RESPECT · 24 games
63%
Weaver
Weaveroften banned
swedenstrong · 24 games
50%
Batrider
Batridersignature
RESPECT · 23 games
70%
Beastmaster
Beastmastersignature
Cloud · 23 games
70%
Rubick
Rubick
swedenstrong · 23 games
57%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
348 picks · 258 bans
45%
Rubick
Rubick
323 picks · 309 bans
50%
Pangolier
Pangolier
321 picks · 452 bans
49%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
319 picks · 371 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
319 picks · 269 bans
54%
Dragon Knight
Dragon Knight
292 picks · 455 bans
47%
Windranger
Windranger
289 picks · 403 bans
52%
Enchantress
Enchantress
282 picks · 491 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)31% vs 59%
Hero pool strength58% 1w Team
Head-to-head2 – 2
Model total75% 1w Team
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed22:22
Virtus.pro 35%1w Team 65%
The model gave 65% on 1w Team — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 51:07.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Bristleback
BristlebackKiritych
54% · 38 games49% · 195 games
WindrangerMunkushi~
Windranger
Timbersaw
TimbersawNoticed
48% · 164 games48% · 179 games
KunkkaCloud
Kunkka
Sand King
Sand KingSquad1x
47% · 86 games48% · 21 game
HuskarChira JUNIOR
Huskar
Rubick
RubickAntares
45% · 237 games56% · 155 games
Snapfireswedenstrong
Snapfire
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorImmersion
50% · 83 games58% · 58 games
OmniknightRESPECT
Omniknight
Game 2prediction correct10:36
Virtus.pro 34%1w Team 66%
The model gave 66% on 1w Team — the game was taken by 1w Team in 34:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawNoticed
48% · 160 games52% · 125 games
SniperChira JUNIOR
Sniper
Mirana
MiranaKiritych
50% · 132 games48% · 151 game
BeastmasterCloud
Beastmaster
Sand King
Sand KingSquad1x
49% · 97 games50% · 245 games
WindrangerMunkushi~
Windranger
Batrider
BatriderAntares
47% · 219 games49% · 209 games
Dark Willowswedenstrong
Dark Willow
Clockwerk
ClockwerkImmersion
46% · 191 game63% · 69 games
OmniknightRESPECT
Omniknight
Game 3prediction missed40:10
Virtus.pro 35%1w Team 65%
The model gave 65% on 1w Team — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 28:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Timbersaw
TimbersawNoticed
58% · 170 games50% · 102 games
Sand KingCloud
Sand King
Windranger
WindrangerKiritych
49% · 199 games55% · 73 games
BristlebackMunkushi~
Bristleback
Kunkka
KunkkaSquad1x
52% · 140 games52% · 118 games
SniperChira JUNIOR
Sniper
Enchantress
EnchantressAntares
42% · 232 games44% · 244 games
ClockwerkRESPECT
Clockwerk
Treant Protector
Treant ProtectorImmersion
57% · 81 game44% · 285 games
Hoodwinkswedenstrong
Hoodwink
Model check result
Model favorite1w Team · 75%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:1
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3