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ESL One Summer 2021 · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 2:1
series probability
61%39%
probability at match start · final 2:1
Allianceloss 1:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Lion
Lionsignature
Save- · 16 games
75%
Oracle
Oraclesignature
1ls · 11 games
73%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
DM · 10 games
70%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Nightfall · 9 games
78%
Enchantress
Enchantresssignature
1ls · 8 games
63%
Tiny
Tinysignature
gpK~ · 8 games
75%
Mars
Marsoften banned
DM · 7 games
29%
Windranger
Windrangersignature
Save- · 7 games
71%

Alliance

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
410 picks · 197 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
389 picks · 586 bans
51%
Puck
Puck
380 picks · 884 bans
52%
Snapfire
Snapfire
367 picks · 205 bans
50%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
352 picks · 332 bans
48%
Tiny
Tiny
314 picks · 228 bans
50%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
282 picks · 384 bans
53%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparition
263 picks · 352 bans
58%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)65% vs 45%
Hero pool strength59% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total61% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct27:3
Virtus.pro 61%Alliance 39%
The model gave 61% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 30:44.
Game 2prediction missed25:21
Virtus.pro 61%Alliance 39%
The model gave 61% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Alliance in 33:30.
Game 3prediction correct23:3
Virtus.pro 61%Alliance 39%
The model gave 61% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 29:06.
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 61%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 3