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BetBoom Dacha · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.proloss 1:2
series probability
65%35%
probability at match start · final 1:2
Alliancewin 2:1
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Ember Spirit
Ember Spiritoften banned
Squad1x · 18 games
44%
Beastmaster
Beastmasteroften banned
Noticed · 14 games
50%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
Fng · 12 games
50%
Techies
Techiesoften banned
Fng · 11 games
55%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
sayuw · 10 games
80%
Skywrath Mage
Skywrath Mage
sayuw · 10 games
50%
Snapfire
Snapfire
sayuw · 10 games
30%
Undying
Undyingsignature
Fng · 10 games
60%

Alliance

No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Techies
Techies
622 picks · 676 bans
55%
Rubick
Rubick
478 picks · 288 bans
47%
Batrider
Batrider
430 picks · 890 bans
52%
Spirit Breaker
Spirit Breaker
384 picks · 393 bans
49%
Ember Spirit
Ember Spirit
383 picks · 805 bans
47%
Doom
Doom
381 picks · 859 bans
54%
Pugna
Pugna
353 picks · 416 bans
54%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
351 picks · 918 bans
54%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)38% vs 36%
Hero pool strength51% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 1
Model total65% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed8:26
Virtus.pro 65%Alliance 35%
The model gave 65% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Alliance in 43:06.
Game 2prediction correct2:26
Virtus.pro 65%Alliance 35%
The model gave 65% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 20:41.
Game 3prediction missed42:22
Virtus.pro 65%Alliance 35%
The model gave 65% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Alliance in 42:15.
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 65%
Series resultAlliance 1:2
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 3