FISSURE Universe: Episode 5. Play-In · BO5
result vs prediction
Virtus.proloss 1:3series probability
55%45%
probability at match start · final 1:3
AVULUSwin 3:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Virtus.pro
Storm Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 17 games
Templar Assassinsignature
Nande · 15 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Lorenof · 14 games
Abaddonsignature
Daxak · 12 games
Batridersignature
prblms · 11 games
Enchantress
Rein · 11 games
Warlocksignature
Rein · 11 games
Bristlebacksignature
Noticed · 10 games
AVULUS
Tinyoften banned
Stormstormer · 37 games
Batrider
Ekki · 25 games
Dawnbreakeroften banned
Xibbe · 25 games
Enigmasignature
Xibbe · 22 games
Dark Seeroften banned
Xibbe · 20 games
Monkey Kingoften banned
Smiling Knight · 20 games
Pugnasignature
SoNNeikO · 20 games
Shadow Shamansignature
Ekki · 20 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
488 picks · 481 bans
Tiny
402 picks · 553 bans
Ringmaster
353 picks · 163 bans
Terrorblade
283 picks · 533 bans
Phantom Assassin
264 picks · 538 bans
Muerta
262 picks · 146 bans
Storm Spirit
262 picks · 370 bans
Beastmaster
260 picks · 580 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)64% vs 33%
Hero pool strength53% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total55% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction missed10:14
Virtus.pro 56%AVULUS 44%
The model gave 56% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by AVULUS in 36:35.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon KnightLorenof
MedusaSmiling Knight
LifestealerV-Tune
TinyMo13ei
BeastmasterDaxak
PangolierXibbe
Shadow ShamanAntares
WindrangerdEsire
PhoenixRein
JakiroFly
Game 2prediction correct30:16
Virtus.pro 54%AVULUS 46%
The model gave 54% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 42:31.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Ember SpiritLorenof
Templar AssassinSmiling Knight
Dragon KnightV-Tune
KunkkaXibbe
BatriderDaxak
TinyMo13ei
SlarkAntares
JakiroFly
Shadow ShamanRein
RingmasterdEsire
Game 3prediction missed25:24
Virtus.pro 56%AVULUS 44%
The model gave 56% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by AVULUS in 45:38.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
LifestealerV-Tune
Nature's ProphetMo13ei
Dragon KnightLorenof
MedusaSmiling Knight
EnigmaDaxak
KunkkaXibbe
PhoenixRein
Crystal MaidenFly
TuskAntares
Shadow ShamandEsire
Game 4prediction missed19:16
Virtus.pro 55%AVULUS 45%
The model gave 55% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by AVULUS in 42:18.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
AbaddonV-Tune
Nature's ProphetMo13ei
BeastmasterDaxak
KunkkaSmiling Knight
Storm SpiritLorenof
Sand KingXibbe
WindrangerAntares
Crystal MaidenFly
SilencerRein
RingmasterdEsire
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 55%
Series resultAVULUS 1:3
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 4