PGL Wallachia Season 6. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 2:0series probability
88%12%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Balaclavasloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Virtus.pro
Abaddonoften banned
V-Tune · 29 games
Dragon Knightsignature
Lorenof · 24 games
Silenceroften banned
Rein · 21 game
Terrorbladeoften banned
Daxak · 21 game
Ember Spiritsignature
Lorenof · 19 games
Dark Seersignature
Daxak · 18 games
Storm Spiritoften banned
Lorenof · 18 games
Tusk
Antares · 17 games
Balaclavas
Axeoften banned
SkyLark · 1 game
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
SkyLark · 1 game
Death Prophet
Adzantick · 1 game
Gyrocopteroften banned
Delight · 1 game
Kunkkaoften banned
Adzantick · 1 game
Medusaoften banned
Focus · 1 game
Nature's Prophetoften banned
SsaSpartan · 1 game
Oracle
SsaSpartan · 1 game
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Disruptor
427 picks · 397 bans
Snapfire
403 picks · 205 bans
Puck
347 picks · 897 bans
Pugna
319 picks · 363 bans
Warlock
284 picks · 139 bans
Tusk
283 picks · 228 bans
Batrider
278 picks · 673 bans
Queen of Pain
276 picks · 840 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)48% vs 55%
Hero pool strength60% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total88% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct35:13
Virtus.pro 88%Balaclavas 12%
The model gave 88% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 28:36.
Game 2prediction correct28:28
Virtus.pro 88%Balaclavas 12%
The model gave 88% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 36:35.
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 88%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2