DreamLeague Season 26. Закрытые квалификации · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 2:0series probability
94%6%
probability at match start · final 2:0
crab restoranloss 0:2The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Virtus.pro
Batridersignature
prblms · 13 games
Clockwerk
aik · 12 games
Enchantress
Rein · 12 games
Storm Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 10 games
Bristlebacksignature
Noticed · 9 games
Earth Spiritoften banned
Squad1x · 9 games
Templar Assassinoften banned
Nande · 9 games
Beastmastersignature
Noticed · 8 games
crab restoran
No games played over 6 months.
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Tiny
526 picks · 724 bans
Muerta
430 picks · 314 bans
Phoenix
428 picks · 703 bans
Clockwerk
410 picks · 400 bans
Bristleback
381 picks · 874 bans
Phantom Assassin
380 picks · 657 bans
Magnus
379 picks · 1014 bans
Pangolier
366 picks · 508 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)58% vs 60%
Hero pool strength57% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total94% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct33:6
Virtus.pro 94%crab restoran 6%
The model gave 94% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 18:50.
Game 2prediction correct28:4
Virtus.pro 94%crab restoran 6%
The model gave 94% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 9:59.
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 94%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2