CCT Series 4 · BO5
result vs prediction
Virtus.proloss 1:3series probability
71%29%
probability at match start · final 1:3
Dragon Esportswin 3:1The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.
Virtus.pro
Dragon Knightoften banned
Kiritych · 15 games
Batridersignature
Antares · 11 games
Phoenixoften banned
Fng · 11 games
Rubick
Antares · 11 games
Tinysignature
Kiritych · 11 games
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Noticed · 10 games
Underlordsignature
Noticed · 10 games
Crystal Maidensignature
Fng · 9 games
Dragon Esports
Pangolieroften banned
dualrazee · 22 games
Gyrocoptersignature
paw · 16 games
Morphlingoften banned
lil pleb · 16 games
Beastmasteroften banned
Infernal · 15 games
Medusaoften banned
lil pleb · 14 games
Tuskoften banned
Mary_y · 13 games
Invokeroften banned
dualrazee · 12 games
Shadow Fiendoften banned
dualrazee · 12 games
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Pangolier
335 picks · 448 bans
Snapfire
323 picks · 242 bans
Clockwerk
308 picks · 264 bans
Enchantress
301 picks · 541 bans
Tusk
298 picks · 414 bans
Dragon Knight
287 picks · 461 bans
Windranger
271 picks · 390 bans
Sand King
265 picks · 763 bans
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)56% vs 48%
Hero pool strength56% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total71% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct23:18
Virtus.pro 64%Dragon Esports 36%
The model gave 64% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 37:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
MorphlingKiritych
Shadow Fiendlil pleb
Storm SpiritSquad1x
Pangolierdualrazee
BeastmasterNoticed
UnderlordInfernal
Keeper of the LightAntares
Dark Willowxsvampire
Clockwerkaik
TuskMary_y
Game 2prediction missed26:42
Virtus.pro 61%Dragon Esports 39%
The model gave 61% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Dragon Esports in 55:42.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow RangerKiritych
BeastmasterInfernal
PuckSquad1x
Spectrelil pleb
UnderlordNoticed
Pangolierdualrazee
RubickAntares
Muertaxsvampire
Tuskaik
PugnaMary_y
Game 3prediction missed26:33
Virtus.pro 61%Dragon Esports 39%
The model gave 61% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Dragon Esports in 44:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
UnderlordNoticed
Morphlinglil pleb
Shadow FiendKiritych
Pangolierdualrazee
Monkey KingSquad1x
Muertaxsvampire
Dark WillowAntares
MarsInfernal
Tuskaik
Naga SirenMary_y
Game 4prediction missed23:41
Virtus.pro 60%Dragon Esports 40%
The model gave 60% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Dragon Esports in 43:49.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
SniperSquad1x
Spectrelil pleb
GyrocopterKiritych
Puckdualrazee
MarsNoticed
BeastmasterInfernal
Keeper of the LightAntares
PugnaMary_y
Clockwerkaik
Tuskxsvampire
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 71%
Series resultDragon Esports 1:3
Series predictionmissed
Accuracy by game1 of 4