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FISSURE Universe: Episode 5. Play-In · BO2
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 2:0
series probability
78%22%
probability at match start · final 2:0
Edgeloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Dragon Knight
Dragon Knightoften banned
Lorenof · 15 games
53%
Storm Spirit
Storm Spiritsignature
Squad1x · 15 games
73%
Templar Assassin
Templar Assassinsignature
Nande · 15 games
67%
Enchantress
Enchantress
Rein · 11 games
45%
Batrider
Batridersignature
prblms · 10 games
60%
Bristleback
Bristlebacksignature
Noticed · 10 games
60%
Terrorblade
Terrorbladeoften banned
TA2000 · 10 games
40%
Abaddon
Abaddonsignature
Daxak · 9 games
67%

Edge

Muerta
Muerta
Michael · 5 games
20%
Ancient Apparition
Ancient Apparitionoften banned
Yadomi · 4 games
0%
Brewmaster
Brewmasteroften banned
Vitaly · 4 games
25%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
Yadomi · 4 games
50%
Slardar
Slardar
PiPi · 4 games
25%
Bristleback
Bristlebackoften banned
Vitaly · 3 games
33%
Elder Titan
Elder Titan
Yadomi · 3 games
33%
Nature's Prophet
Nature's Prophetoften banned
payk · 3 games
0%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Jakiro
Jakiro
457 picks · 445 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
418 picks · 576 bans
50%
Ringmaster
Ringmaster
316 picks · 146 bans
51%
Phantom Assassin
Phantom Assassin
302 picks · 609 bans
53%
Terrorblade
Terrorblade
285 picks · 511 bans
47%
Muerta
Muerta
283 picks · 157 bans
53%
Bristleback
Bristleback
280 picks · 510 bans
57%
Beastmaster
Beastmaster
276 picks · 562 bans
52%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)60% vs 30%
Hero pool strength61% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head0 – 0
Model total78% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct36:15
Virtus.pro 64%Edge 36%
The model gave 64% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 36:29.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Drow Ranger
Drow RangerV-Tune
44% · 48 games51% · 236 games
Morphlingpayk
Morphling
Abaddon
AbaddonDaxak
43% · 65 games49% · 93 games
TidehunterVitaly
Tidehunter
Pangolier
PangolierLorenof
49% · 270 games59% · 174 games
MagnusPiPi
Magnus
Bane
BaneAntares
66% · 11 games43% · 80 games
RingmasterYadomi
Ringmaster
Bristleback
BristlebackRein
54% · 243 games50% · 54 games
Shadow ShamanMichael
Shadow Shaman
Game 2prediction correct23:11
Virtus.pro 66%Edge 34%
The model gave 66% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 36:01.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Dragon Knight
Dragon KnightV-Tune
47% · 412 games53% · 154 games
Templar Assassinpayk
Templar Assassin
Puck
PuckLorenof
49% · 252 games53% · 224 games
DoomVitaly
Doom
Abaddon
AbaddonDaxak
50% · 76 games50% · 225 games
Sand KingPiPi
Sand King
Tusk
TuskAntares
47% · 359 games46% · 203 games
WindrangerMichael
Windranger
Ancient Apparition
Ancient ApparitionRein
55% · 90 games51% · 383 games
ClockwerkYadomi
Clockwerk
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 78%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2