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Dota Pro Circuit 2021: Season 2 — СНГ 1-й дивизион · BO3
result vs prediction
Virtus.prowin 2:0
series probability
80%20%
probability at match start · final 2:0
EXTREMUMloss 0:2
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Lion
Lionsignature
Save- · 13 games
77%
Oracle
Oraclesignature
1ls · 9 games
89%
Timbersaw
Timbersawsignature
DM · 8 games
75%
Enchantress
Enchantressoften banned
1ls · 6 games
50%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingsignature
Nightfall · 6 games
83%
Mars
Marsoften banned
DM · 5 games
40%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
gpK~ · 5 games
80%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maiden
1ls · 4 games
75%

EXTREMUM

Batrider
Batrideroften banned
mellojul · 15 games
47%
Death Prophet
Death Prophetsignature
G · 15 games
73%
Mars
Marsoften banned
Shachlo · 15 games
53%
Void Spirit
Void Spiritoften banned
mellojul · 14 games
57%
Puck
Puckoften banned
mellojul · 12 games
58%
Wraith King
Wraith Kingoften banned
Nefrit · 9 games
44%
Medusa
Medusasignature
Nefrit · 8 games
75%
Phoenix
Phoenixsignature
Chuvash · 8 games
63%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Puck
Puck
410 picks · 985 bans
49%
Void Spirit
Void Spirit
370 picks · 530 bans
50%
Mars
Mars
352 picks · 571 bans
54%
Death Prophet
Death Prophet
340 picks · 709 bans
55%
Grimstroke
Grimstroke
336 picks · 335 bans
48%
Lion
Lion
311 picks · 170 bans
47%
Tusk
Tusk
304 picks · 227 bans
52%
Earth Spirit
Earth Spirit
270 picks · 283 bans
51%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)71% vs 38%
Hero pool strength57% Virtus.pro
Head-to-head1 – 0
Model total80% Virtus.pro
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct25:3
Virtus.pro 68%EXTREMUM 32%
The model gave 68% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 28:20.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Abaddon
AbaddonNightfall
40% · 24 games55% · 32 games
MedusaNefrit
Medusa
Doom
DoomDM
53% · 20 games54% · 51 game
MiranaChuvash
Mirana
Invoker
InvokergpK~
43% · 21 game41% · 25 games
Legion CommanderShachlo
Legion Commander
Enchantress
EnchantressSave-
54% · 44 games45% · 21 game
Axemellojul
Axe
Disruptor
Disruptor1ls
60% · 20 gameslittle data
BaneG
Bane
Game 2prediction correct26:28
Virtus.pro 69%EXTREMUM 31%
The model gave 69% on Virtus.pro — the game was taken by Virtus.pro in 39:37.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidNightfall
54% · 24 games47% · 64 games
Wraith KingNefrit
Wraith King
Tiny
TinygpK~
45% · 42 games56% · 56 games
Centaur WarrunnerShachlo
Centaur Warrunner
Magnus
MagnusDM
50% · 12 games53% · 30 games
Batridermellojul
Batrider
Lion
LionSave-
39% · 77 gameslittle data
DazzleChuvash
Dazzle
Disruptor
Disruptor1ls
66% · 23 games55% · 28 games
LinaG
Lina
Model check result
Model favoriteVirtus.pro · 80%
Series resultVirtus.pro 2:0
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game2 of 2