?
arrow_backBack to match
DreamLeague Season 22 · BO1
result vs prediction
Virtus.proloss 0:1
series probability
25%75%
probability at match start · final 0:1
Gaimin Gladiatorswin 1:0
The prediction was locked in using data as of the match start: hero winrates, form and head-to-head were computed only from games before it began. This is how the model's honest accuracy is verified.
Teams' go-to heroes · 6 months
Who plays what and how often they win. "Signature" — from 6 games with a 60%+ winrate: such a pick statistically raises the win chance.

Virtus.pro

Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunneroften banned
Noticed · 21 game
48%
Pugna
Pugnasignature
sayuw · 19 games
74%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokeoften banned
sayuw · 14 games
43%
Pangolier
Pangolieroften banned
Squad1x · 14 games
57%
Faceless Void
Faceless Voidsignature
Kiritych · 13 games
77%
Puck
Pucksignature
Squad1x · 12 games
67%
Tiny
Tinysignature
sayuw · 12 games
75%
Treant Protector
Treant Protectorsignature
Fng · 12 games
75%

Gaimin Gladiators

Pangolier
Pangoliersignature
Quinn · 27 games
70%
Gyrocopter
Gyrocopter
dyrachyo · 19 games
53%
Muerta
Muertasignature
tOfu · 18 games
61%
Alchemist
Alchemistsignature
dyrachyo · 17 games
71%
Crystal Maiden
Crystal Maidensignature
Seleri · 14 games
64%
Grimstroke
Grimstrokesignature
tOfu · 13 games
69%
Sven
Sven
dyrachyo · 13 games
54%
Lone Druid
Lone Druidsignature
Ace · 12 games
75%
Patch meta · 3 months
The most picked heroes of the pro scene and their winrate. Picking a meta hero adds points to the team in the model.
Lion
Lion
377 picks · 332 bans
53%
Centaur Warrunner
Centaur Warrunner
329 picks · 475 bans
58%
Vengeful Spirit
Vengeful Spirit
328 picks · 317 bans
52%
Pangolier
Pangolier
277 picks · 403 bans
51%
Mars
Mars
275 picks · 380 bans
56%
Techies
Techies
269 picks · 188 bans
55%
Hoodwink
Hoodwink
263 picks · 145 bans
51%
Tiny
Tiny
259 picks · 190 bans
49%
Prediction components
Form (series winrate)43% vs 39%
Hero pool strength51% Gaimin Gladiators
Head-to-head0 – 2
Model total75% Gaimin Gladiators
Prediction by game vs result
Probabilities were locked in using statistics as of the match start: the draft was assessed by hero comfort, counter-picks and late-game potential. We compare against the actual result.
Game 1prediction correct10:30
Virtus.pro 36%Gaimin Gladiators 64%
The model gave 64% on Gaimin Gladiators — the game was taken by Gaimin Gladiators in 45:10.
Expected value against opponent's pick · 12 mo
Puck
PuckSquad1x
57% · 116 games67% · 12 games
HuskarQuinn
Huskar
Faceless Void
Faceless VoidKiritych
53% · 142 games44% · 72 games
DawnbreakerAce
Dawnbreaker
Enigma
EnigmaNoticed
49% · 88 games50% · 99 games
Slarkdyrachyo
Slark
Witch Doctor
Witch DoctorFng
42% · 17 games48% · 211 games
BatridertOfu
Batrider
Tiny
Tinysayuw
50% · 131 game47% · 100 games
GyrocopterSeleri
Gyrocopter
Model check result
Model favoriteGaimin Gladiators · 75%
Series resultGaimin Gladiators 0:1
Series predictioncorrect
Accuracy by game1 of 1